The possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is slim, Chatham House said, but it could quickly turn into a serious concern if Putin feels defeat is imminent.
Moscow has raised new concerns in recent days about its willingness to deploy devastating weapons, as it announced last week that it would transfer nuclear missiles to Belarus before today starting exercises using the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile systems.
in Research paper For the UK’s leading foreign policy think tank, Russia and Eurasia expert Keir Giles has warned that there is a ‘non-zero’ chance Putin could seek to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, writing: ‘A nuclear strike could be ordered if there is no more any possibility. Claiming traditional victory and a powerful, devastating attack on Ukraine is seen as the only way to avoid conceding clear defeat.
“The moment when Putin feels his options have been exhausted is likely to be the most dangerous decision point,” he concluded.
A missile launch from a missile system as part of a ground-based ICBM test launched from the Plesetsk facility in northwestern Russia
US President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting in Moscow, Russia, Friday, March 24, 2023
A Topol-M nuclear missile at the Victory Day parade in Moscow, Russia
Giles noted that nuclear weapons would have little military benefit on the ground in Ukraine, given that the front line stretches hundreds of miles and that any strike would not only kill Ukrainians, but would also irradiate the Earth and make it uninhabitable for Russian forces.
This means that a strike is unlikely to achieve military objectives, but rather as a retaliation aimed simply at causing misery and destruction in Ukraine in recognition of Russia’s failure to overcome it.
“The rationale is that if Russia can’t own Ukraine, nobody can,” Giles said.
The newspaper added that the barriers that prevent Moscow from launching a nuclear weapon – such as the risk of retaliatory strikes, the increase in nuclear proliferation among its enemies, and the possibility of becoming a pariah on the world stage – do not take into account the possibility that it is Putin. Unable to make rational decisions.
The above conditions must be observed with the caveat that they assume that President Putin is able to make a rational choice based on an objective assessment of his and Russia’s situation.
They do not account for the possibility that Putin is obsessed and/or delusional, or simply not receiving a clear or accurate picture from those around him of world events and the progress of his war.
“It is also not inconceivable that this problem could be exacerbated by Putin’s physical or mental health… Factors such as these may contribute to indications of an increasingly broad disconnect between Putin and reality.”
In order to deter Putin from considering the possibility of nuclear proliferation, Giles argues that the US, UK, and Western allies should not be persuaded by a nuclear sable to destabilize Moscow, and instead articulate the consequences that Putin himself might face.
A Russian nuclear missile rolls along Red Square during the military parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazism, on June 24, 2020 in Moscow.
In this file, video captured from a publication released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on April 20, 2022 shows the launch of a Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile at the Plesetsk Test Range, Russia.
In this image from a video released by the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday, October 26, 2022, the Yaris intercontinental ballistic missile is being tested as part of Russia’s nuclear exercises from the Plesetsk launch site.
If Russia is allowed to succeed through nuclear intimidation, this validates the concept of nuclear coercion not just for Moscow but for other aggressive, assertive, or rogue nations around the world.
The non-zero chance (of Putin using nuclear weapons) should be further reduced by reconsidering messaging from the United States and its allies regarding the potential consequences of nuclear use.
In particular, these messages should highlight that … a nuclear strike would in fact unleash processes that would be beyond Russia’s control because they would involve responses and responses not only from the United States but from around the world.
This requires a clearer and clearer statement of intent from the United States and its allies that goes beyond promising ‘severe consequences’ and instead touches on interests of personal importance not only to Vladimir Putin but also to his top military commanders. ”
In line with the Kremlin’s long-standing tactic of a nuclear posture, Russia today began the exercises with the Yaris intercontinental ballistic missile system and several thousand troops, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
President Putin sought to make the Yaris system, which replaced the Topol system, part of Russia’s ‘indomitable weapons’ and the mainstay of the ground component of its nuclear arsenal.
“In total, more than 3,000 military personnel and nearly 300 pieces of equipment are participating in the exercise,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement on the Telegram messaging service.
The exercises include a comprehensive control check of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Omsk Missile Formation along with a command and personnel training with the Novosibirsk Missile Formation equipped with Yars systems.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting at the government residence in Novo-Ogaryovo outside Moscow. Last week, Putin announced that he intends to place tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus
The ministry said that during the exercises, the Yaris mobile systems will conduct maneuvers in three Russian regions, without specifying the regions.
The Strategic Missile Men will also implement a set of measures to camouflage and counter modern air reconnaissance means, in cooperation with the formations and units of the Central Military Region and the Air Force.
There are few proven tactical and technical characteristics of the Yars ICBM, which is said to have an operational range of 7,500 miles.
According to military bloggers, the systems are capable of carrying multiple independently targeted nuclear warheads and can be mounted on truck carriers or deployed in silos.
last week, Putin announced that he intends to Deploy tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil in what appeared to be another attempt to raise the stakes in the conflict in Ukraine.
Belarus said it decided to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons in response to Western sanctions and what it said was a military build-up by NATO members near its borders.
US President Joe Biden had indicated he would be concerned about the decision, although the US said it had seen no indications that Russia was close to using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.