Projection models predict that Trump 2020 wins, established players and presidents with good economies rarely lose
Trump wins in 2020 according to three separate projection models because & # 39; sitting presidents rarely lose during good economies & # 39;
- Obama era Finance Minister Steve Rattner wrote a column for the New York Times on Monday stating that Trump is expected to win in 2020
- Rattner quoted three prediction models that foresaw Obama & # 39; s White House victories in 2008 and 2012 as well as Trump's surprise win in 2016
- Yale professor Ray Fair & # 39; s model found Trump & # 39; s 2020 voting share would normally be as high as 56.1 percent, but notes: & that is before his personality is taken into account & # 39;
- Moody & # 39; s economist Mark Zandi has analyzed 12 prediction models for 2020 and determined that Trump has won in all
- Donald Luskin from Trend Macrolytics examined the Electoral College and came to the same conclusion
- The gross domestic product and the growth rates of inflation are crucial economic predictors
- Income is usually a good determining factor for the result of the presidential elections
- Of the 20 sitting US presidents before Trump who have been for re-election, only five, about 26 percent including Gerald Ford, have lost
The poll numbers of Donald Trump can be trending downbut the president's chances of winning a re-election look up, according to economists.
Obama administration Finance Minister Steve Rattner wrote a New York Times opinion column about the odds of the White House of Trump in 2020 on Monday.
In his paper, Rattner, who acted as advisor to former finance minister Tim Geittner, addressed three reports on forecasting models from accredited economists who all figured out that Trump will probably preserve his presidency next fall.
These same models envisioned Barack Obama & # 39; s historic victory at the White House in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and the unexpected victory of Trump in 2016.
Donald Trump's polls are expected to decline, but the president's chances of winning re-election are increasing, according to economists.
Moody & # 39; s Trump economist and critic, Mark Zandi, has analyzed 12 2020 forecast models that evaluate state-level economic trends and add political factors such as the approval of a president.
Zandi said that Trump won in all 12 models despite his character.
& # 39; If the elections were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handy, & # 39; Zandi said Politics in March. & # 39; In three or four of them it would be fairly close. He has low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables in his back. The only exception is its popularity, which is very important. If it falls off a cliff, it would make a big difference. & # 39;
Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics investigated the likely outcomes of the election program and came to the same conclusion as Zandi.
Rattner also noted that some of the models predicting that Trump would win in 2016 overestimate his margin of victory by an unusually high margin, which he credits to Trumps polarizing persona.
Yale & # 39; s economics professor Ray Fair & # 39; s model found Trump & # 39; s 2020 voting share normally as high as 56.1 percent, but notes: & that is before you take into account his personality & # 39 ;.
Some of the same models from these economists foresaw Barack Obama & # 39; s historic victory at the White House in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and the unexpected victory of Trump in 2016
The most important factors currently working in Trump's favor are its reliability and America's current good economy
Polls suggest that Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, although many on the left are opposed to the former vice president who wins the Democratic nomination.
Rattner noted that Trump lost the popular voice to Hillary Clinton by a large margin of about three million people.
& # 39; I am pretty sure that the gap in the forecast model was a function of the generally unfavorable ranking of Mr. Trump's personal qualities, & # 39; Rattner wrote. & # 39; In other words, a more & # 39; normal & # 39; Republican would probably have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes). & # 39;
The most important factors currently working in Trump's favor are its reliability and America's current good economy.
CBS News notes that of the 20 current US presidents before Trump who have been for re-election, only five, about 26 percent including Gerald Ford, have lost.
& # 39; The question for 2020 may be very good if Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters' poor perception of him and use a good economy and inclusiveness to win re-election, "Rattner said.
Polls show that Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, although many on the left are opposed to the former vice-president winning the Democratic nomination
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