Predict where the Warriors will end up in the tough Western Conference Originally appeared in NBC Bay Area Sports
After sinking a little further in the Western Conference in each of the last three NBA seasons, from third place to sixth to 10th, the Warriors believe they Improved during the offseason and are therefore ready to scale.
A look at the Depth within the conferenceHowever, it offers a sobering rebuttal: being better may not result in a better outcome.
The West remains as unbalanced as last season, but the second and third divisions are even deeper. The gap between fourth and twelfth place has narrowed.
Of the 15 teams in the West, only rebuilding franchises Portland and Utah can be ignored in any serious postseason conversation. The rebuilding San Antonio Spurs could be in the hunt for a spot in the NBA play-in tournament. The other 12 teams will be fighting to secure one of the six guaranteed spots or at least one of the four play-in tournament berths.
The Western Conference was the main topic this week on NBC Sports Bay Area’s “Dubs Talk” podcast. There were so many variables that a planned 30-minute conversation with our guest, national NBA writer Sam Amick of The Athletic, stretched to an hour.
The top three teams are, on paper, locked in. The Oklahoma City Thunder were the No. 1 seed last season and improved with the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Denver Nuggets, who finished second last season, are expected to fall after losing guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Minnesota Timberwolves finished third and aren’t expected to finish lower.
The fourth spot, which guarantees home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs, appears to be where the defending conference champion Dallas Mavericks should end up.
“I think Dallas is there,” Amick said of the roster bolstered by the acquisition of former Warrior Klay Thompson. “I certainly don’t have the Lakers in there. Phoenix is going to be good; I think more time together should help them, but (their) roster is very unbalanced. So I’m probably going to go with OKC, Minnesota, Denver and Dallas.”
The remaining two guaranteed playoff spots will be pursued by the Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans, surging Houston Rockets, rebounding Memphis Grizzlies and their Northern California rivals, the Warriors and Sacramento Kings.
Sacramento finished ninth last season, with Golden State in 10th place. The Kings won their play-in matchup, causing Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Thompson to spend a playoff-free summer for the first time in their history.
We think the Warriors have improved a bit. Buddy Hield will need an adjustment period but has the potential to replace the shooting ability Thompson once offered. Kyle Anderson offers two-way versatility off the bench. De’Anthony Melton will help on defense and contribute on offense.
Yeah Curry is typically competentWith Green atypically available and Gary Payton II healthy, the Warriors have top-eight potential. If incoming assistant coaches Terry Stotts (offense) and Jerry Stackhouse (defense) can make a positive impact, Golden State could even crack the top six.
There are many “ifs,” to be sure, but the same can be said of most of these teams.
“What I think people forget is how good the Warriors were in the second half,” Amick said, referring to Golden State’s 27-12 record in its last 39 games.
Golden State’s thrilling regular-season finale was swept aside by the Kings in the play-in game at Golden 1 Center. Sacramento pulled ahead after three minutes and held on for a 118-94 rout. Those Kings were good.
The new Kings could be better. The addition of five-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan, at the expense of Harrison Barnes, gives them another verified closer to pair with De’Aaron Fox. Malik Monk, a ray of light off the bench, opted to re-sign and make another run at the Sixth Man of the Year award.
Kings or warriors? Who ends up better? I say warriors. Amick disagrees.
“I’m going to give the Kings the win,” he said. “I’m going to go with the most well-known player. I trust Fox and (Domantas) Sabonis and Keegan (Murray) and Monk. I know who they are. If they’re healthy, they’re really good. And I have great support for DeRozan, too.
“And as great and amazing as Steph is, he needs help. There are a lot of questions around him right now where maybe the answers will come from, and six months from now we’ll have a fascinating conversation where they’re really finding out. And that’s possible. It’s the NBA. Crazy things happen.”
Aside from the top three and bottom three, there will be “crazy stuff” in the West. The Los Angeles Clippers, for example, are the only team that is sure to fall into the top six. They could be fighting for a play-in spot. After that, there will be a scrum.
The Suns will once again feature Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant (three All-Stars) and not much else. Can Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, star backup point guards, combine to stabilize a position that was a glaring weakness last season?
The Los Angeles Lakers? How long can LeBron James, who turns 40 in December, defy the aging process? This could be the year that Los Angeles’ towering duo of Anthony Davis and James miss another bunch of games. They missed a combined 17 last season, their lowest total since they became teammates in 2019.
“I’m curious to see JJ Reddick’s impact and how that part goes,” Amick said, referring to the first-time head coach. “Because while Darvin Ham got a lot of criticism, Darvin led them to the Western Conference finals the year before. Darvin ended up losing the support of the star players and JJ has it now.”
The Pelicans now have four proven scorers in Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Zion Williamson. However, Zion’s availability will determine his potential.
The Grizzlies, coming off a disastrous 27-55 season, will be bolstered by the return of Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and a full season for Desmond Bane. The trio missed a total of 177 games last season.
The Rockets? Even with talented center Alperen Șengun sidelined, they put in a good showing late last season. They should improve and be at least good enough to make more established teams sweat.
Buckle up. There will be blood in the West. Will the Warriors be prepared to inflict more than they’ll lose? Know that they won’t settle. Not under CEO Joe Lacob. Not with Curry watching the entire operation with a magnifying glass.
If the Warriors are in the middle of the standings at the midpoint (they should be at least that high), they will surely look to make a deal before the trade deadline.