Poll predicting 2016 election says Donald Trump is on track to win again with the help of ‘hidden’ support from silent voters who don’t poll
- Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar Group’s lead investigator, says Trump will likely be reelected with the help of his ‘hidden support’
- Cahaly says latest Trafalgar polls show Trump is slightly ahead in key states including Michigan, Florida, Arizona and Ohio
- He says polls don’t account for ‘shy Trump voters’ who don’t participate in polls and are quiet in their support of Trump for fear of backlash
- In 2016, the group was one of the few to lead Trump on the eve of voting day in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, which Trump later won
The pollster who predicted the 2016 election results says Donald Trump is on his way to regaining the presidency, bolstered by his “ hidden ” support.
Robert Cahaly, lead investigator for the Trafalgar Group, says Trump is likely to be reelected based on polls this month showing he has a slight lead in key states.
Cahaly says those polls do not pertain to Trump’s “ hidden ” fans who don’t want to identify themselves by participating in polls for fear of retaliation for backing Trump.
‘I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly significantly higher based on how big this undercurrent is, ‘Cahaly said Hannity on Fox News Tuesday night.
Robert Cahaly, lead investigator of the Trafalgar Group, says Trump is likely to be reelected thanks to votes from his “hidden” supporters. “ What we noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what we call the shy Trump voter, ” he said.
Cahaly says Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, where most polls show deadlock or Biden show a slight lead
In 2016, the Georgia-based opinion group was one of the few to show Trump in the lead in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of voting day. Trump eventually won all those states.
Now Cahaly says Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, where most polls show a stalemate or show Biden with a slight lead.
“ What we’ve noticed is that these polls mainly miss the hidden Trump vote, what we call the shy Trump voter, ” he said.
There is a clear feeling among conservatives and those in favor of the president that they are reluctant to share their views over the phone. These people are reluctant to participate in polls. So if you don’t compensate for this … you won’t get honest answers, ‘he added.
Two weeks before the election, some 35 million Americans have already voted.
Trafalgar’s October 11-13 poll of 1,025 likely voters in Michigan shows Trump is one point ahead with 46.5 percent of support, compared to Biden’s 45.9 percent
Cahaly says Trump will win Ohio, where Trump led with 47.6 percent from Oct. 1-3, according to Trafalgar’s poll, compared to Biden with 43.9 percent.
The latest Trafalgar polls, of a poll of 1,051 likely voters from Oct. 14-16, show that Biden leads Wisconsin by just one point at 47.5 percent compared to Trump’s 46.3 percent
Cahaly also predicts Trump will win Georgia. The July poll found he was six points ahead of Biden with 49.8 percent of the support. Cahaly noted that most other polls show Biden is in charge in Georgia
The latest Trafalgar polls, of a poll of 1,051 likely voters from Oct. 14-16, show that Biden leads Wisconsin by just one point at 47.5 percent, compared to Trump’s 46.3 percent.
Trafalgar’s polls show Trump is one percentage point ahead of Biden in Michigan, two points in Florida, four points in Arizona and four points in Ohio, according to October surveys.
The group also has Trump in the lead in Georgia with 48.8 percent support, according to a July 14-17 survey of 1,023 likely voters.
Cahaly said the controversy over Hunter Biden over his foreign business dealings could turn the predictions of most experts. Joe Biden pictured above Monday in Wilmington, Delaware
The polls also show that Biden leads one point in Pennsylvania and that Trump and Biden are even dead at 46 percent in Minnesota, according to an August poll.
Cahaly said the controversy over Hunter Biden over his foreign business dealings could turn the predictions of most experts.
“If the president uses this effectively in the debate [Thursday] when a more dual audience watches and puts [Biden] I think Biden can crack on the spot, kind of like he did in the primaries, ”Cahaly said.
“And when that happens, then the mainstream media will have to cover it,” he said.