A historian known as the “Nostradamus” of presidential elections has revealed who Vice President Kamala Harris should choose as her running mate.
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the past 10 elections, said in a YouTube livestream Thursday that Harris’s choice came down to two vice presidential candidates: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
“I don’t think the choice of vice president is decisive, but it is incredibly important,” said the American University professor. “I think all the names that have been considered are qualified. In my opinion, it’s down to two.”
In an interview with Newsweek MagazineLichtman added that Shapiro would be a particularly good choice for vice president given that he comes from a state whose 19 electoral votes are up for grabs.
“Electing someone from a particular state is no guarantee that you’re going to win that state, but if you want to get to a particular state, Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election,” the historian said.
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 elections, said in a YouTube livestream on Thursday that Harris’s choice came down to two vice presidential candidates.
Harris is expected to announce her pick on Monday, ahead of her first public appearance with the vice presidential nominee on Tuesday in Philadelphia.
No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania since Harry Truman in 1948.
The state has voted Democratic in every election since 1992, except in 2016, when it voted for Donald Trump, who is running again in November as a Republican.
Harris is expected to announce her pick on Monday, ahead of her first public appearance with the vice presidential nominee on Tuesday in Philadelphia.
The short list of candidates also reportedly includes Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
Last month, Lichtman updated his complicated prediction model to reflect President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris’ emergence as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Lichtman added that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would be a particularly good choice for vice president given that he hails from a key swing state whose 19 electoral votes are at stake.
Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly is another top choice for Harris’ vice president, the historian said.
Based on his model, which includes thirteen factors, or “keys,” as he calls them, Harris is currently on track for victory less than 100 days before Election Day.
Lichtman’s model measures factors against the party currently in the White House, which is currently the Democrats.
He said he will make his official election prediction next month, but Harris has most of her keys leaning in her favor to win.
“I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman wrote on X. “See my assessment below in the 13 Keys Tracker on where the Keys stand NOW.”
Factors giving Harris the edge include that she did not face a primary challenger, there has been little threat from third-party candidates so far, and the economy is strong in the short and long term.
The short list of candidates also reportedly includes Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (pictured).
With the switch to Harris, the White House has not made a major shift in policy either, and the vice president is not facing a scandal or major social unrest.
Lichtman noted that with Biden’s transition to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, Democrats have lost one advantage: the incumbency factor.
Now that Harris and Trump are facing each other, the professor believes the race is virtually wide open.
But he noted that Democrats were able to avoid further fallout with their shakeup, as the party overwhelmingly united behind Harris rather than launching a chaotic open primary or having other presidential hopefuls jump into the race at this late stage.
“I haven’t made a final prediction. I said I’ll make that after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman told C-SPAN.
“But I’ve said for months and continue to say that a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose,” he added. “That could happen, but a lot of things would have to change.”
