Historian Allan Lichtman said the so-called October surprise would not make him back down from his prediction that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump in November.
The 77-year-old American University professor has designed his own electoral model that has correctly predicted every presidential winner since 1984.
Announced in early September what harris He met critical victory goals and predicted he would beat Trump, and he now denies the idea that any kind of upset between now and Nov. 5 could change that.
‘One of the biggest myths in American politics is the October surprise. “I have never changed my prediction in the event of a surprise in October,” he said.
An October surprise historically refers to a major news event that takes place in the final weeks of a presidential campaign.
Historian Allan Lichtman said the so-called October surprise would not make him back down from his prediction that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump in November.
Lichtman relies on an unorthodox system (ignoring polls and experts) based on what he calls the White House’s “13 Keys,” a model he developed in 1981 with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
In his opinion, those keys can withstand the test of any kind of surprise that could happen to either candidate in October.
“The keys measured the overall picture of the current government in terms of strength and are not swayed by campaign events,” Lichtman said. cnn.
Past examples of October surprises include, perhaps most infamously, Hillary Clinton’s emails that led to the reopening of the federal investigation, or Donald Trump’s Access Hollywood tape.
In the 2020 election, some have posited that Trump contracting COVID-19 and the Hunter Biden laptop story and its resulting cover-up were going to shake up the race.
The origins of the term date back to 1980, when the Iran hostage crisis was believed to have led to Jimmy Carter losing to Ronald Reagan.
In August, jurist John Yoo warned that Trump could be blindsided by an “October surprise” at his sentencing in Manhattan that would end his chances of retaking the White House.
Trump has been desperately seeking to postpone his sentencing hearing until after the election, after a Manhattan jury convicted him of 34 counts of falsifying business records.
He announced in early September that Harris had met critical milestones for victory and predicted she would beat Trump, and he now denies the idea that any kind of upset between now and Nov. 5 would change that.
Lichtman says there is no such thing as an ‘October surprise’ that would make him change his prediction.
But the controversial judge Juan Merchán has systematically denied their appeals.
while talking to fox news host Bill HemmerYoo said Merchan wields the power to “order Donald Trump…to go to jail immediately.”
In May, it was revealed that US officials are preparing for North Korea to take increasingly “provocative” actions in the run-up to the November election, as Pyongyang cements long-standing ties with Moscow.
‘We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. “It’s just a question of how escalated it is,” a US intelligence official said. NBC News.
It comes in anticipation of a likely meeting between North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was re-elected this year with 87 percent of the vote after more than two decades in power.
Some of the escalation actions, whatever they may be, are expected to come closer to the US elections, according to intelligence officials.
Biden administration officials are raising concerns about the alliance, which comes amid an embrace between U.S. rivals Russia and China in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The warning has echoes of 2016, when US officials accused Russia of interfering in the election. Special counsel Robert Mueller indicted 34 people, including members of a Kremlin-linked Russian troll farm, after his two-year investigation.