A historian who has successfully predicted nearly every presidential election since 1984 believes the war in Ukraine could pose a big problem for Kamala Harris in November.
Allan Lichtman used his ‘Keys to the White House’ theory in September to confidently predict that Harris would win the election, but now he admits her path to victory might not be so easy.
Its previous projection was based on thirteen factors, or ‘keys’, that evaluate the candidate’s performance on various issues such as domestic policy, economy and foreign policy.
In Lichtman’s system, each of the 13 keys can be presented as a true or false statement. He believes that if eight or more of these statements are true, the candidate will win but if seven or fewer are true, he or she will lose.
‘Nostradamus’ poll says war in Ukraine could be a problem for Kamala Harris
Allan Lichtman is a historian who has successfully predicted almost every presidential election since 1984.
After announcing that Harris would emerge victorious, critics began to identify flaws in his forecasting model.
Now, the historian seems less confident in Harris’ performance in his “foreign policy key,” a factor he had previously said would work in the candidate’s favor.
Lichtman attributed this to the war in Ukraine and noted that the conflict is a major weakness for Harris.
“Well, the most unstable key is foreign policy,” the historian admitted during an interview broadcast live on YouTube on Wednesday.
“I gave it to the administration because it was Biden… who formed the Western coalition that stopped Putin from conquering Ukraine and going after our NATO allies and deeply endangering America’s national security.”
After first explaining that American aid had kept Ukraine “alive” for more than two and a half years, the 77-year-old historian commented: “Wars are fluid.”
He added: “And I suppose there could be a catastrophe in Ukraine.”
Lichtman successfully predicted Trump’s victory in 2016
Lichtman, a professor at American University, clarified his comments to news week on Friday.
‘(Foreign policy) is the most unstable comparatively because wars are uncertain.
‘However, now I am sure that it will not change. Still, a flip wouldn’t change the prediction because Harris has a two-key cushion with four negative keys.’
It is unclear to what extent the divisive war in Gaza and the calamitous American withdrawal from Afghanistan influenced the historian’s judgment.
Lichtman’s thirteen keys are party mandate, no primary race, incumbency, third-party challenge, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, scandal, military or foreign failure, military or foreign success, charisma of the incumbent and challenging charisma.
According to Lichtman, keys two, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and 13 are currently true, which is enough to ensure a victory for Harris.
Using these same keys, the historian concluded that Trump would win the 2016 elections, a prediction that disagreed with the polling data and that surprised the academic community.
When Trump won, Lichtman was vindicated and hailed as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the election.
Allan Lichtman predicted that Harris would win the 2024 election using his model that includes 13 keys
Earlier this month, he offered his thoughts on how hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the election.
“The hurricane is a humanitarian catastrophe and, of course, it is vitally important that the response is as effective as possible.”
Despite the widespread destruction caused by the storms, Lichtman stood by his prediction.
‘However, the storm does not affect the economic key in either the short or long term.
Historian Allan Lichtman said the so-called October surprise would not make him back down from his prediction that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump in November.
“It will not lead us into a recession in the coming weeks nor will it affect (the) entire record of real per capita growth during Biden’s term, which is double the average of the previous two terms.”
Some commentators saw the hurricanes as a form of October surprise, a major news event occurring in the final weeks of a presidential campaign that has the potential to derail his chances.
Lichtman, however, previously expressed his disdain for the concept, saying that it has never influenced his predictions.
‘One of the biggest myths in American politics is the October surprise. I’ve never changed my prediction for an October surprise.’