PH’s economy will become 18th largest by mid-century

MANILA – The Philippines could join the world’s 20 largest economies by value in less than three decades thanks to its large population and rapidly improving industries like manufacturing, according to BMI Research.

The Fitch Group subsidiary said in a report that the world ranking of economies was poised for a “major overhaul” from the 2030s, with some emerging economies, including the Philippines, giving developed economies a hard time.

BMI sees China overtaking the United States for first place in 2027 and overtaking the United States “by a wide margin” by 2050.

Likewise, India is expected to get a bigger share of the global economy. Currently ranked fifth, the South Asian giant is expected to move up to third, currently held by Japan, in 2035.

“Besides the two emerging market giants, we are particularly bullish on Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, all of which have growing populations and are rapidly developing high value-added sectors, such as manufacturing,” he said. said BMI.

Equal with Russia

BMI expects the Philippines to be the 18th largest economy in the world by 2050, tied with Russia, each accounting for 2.3% of global wealth.

Based on 2021 data, the World Bank places the Philippines in 38th place with a national economy valued at $394 billion. Russia ranks 11th with $1.8 trillion.

This means that in 2021, the Philippines held a 0.4% share of global production of $96.5 trillion, while Russia accounted for 1.8%.

BMI said Russia, along with Brazil and Mexico, will experience relative economic decline over the forecast period.

Over the 27-year forecast period, the Russian economy is expected to rise from 11th place this year with a 2% contribution to the global economy to 15th (2.2%) in 2035, until that the Philippines will catch up as the world’s superpower by mid-2035. century.

“Given the significant lead times involved, the risks to these forecasts are significant,” BMI said, adding that all 206 economies covered in the report were unlikely to exist in 2050 in their current forms.

The projections are based on United Nations population projections and an extrapolation of themes that BMI says will drive economic growth in the 2020s and 2030s.

“Given the long-term horizon, even small changes could have big effects,” the company said.

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