With a federal election expected in just over six months, what can the government do to convince voters it is worthy of re-election?
After more than two years, this first mandate seems lost at sea. It’s hard to know what its purpose is.
The situation is not new.
Even John Howard, after his resounding election victory in 1996, lost his way during the Coalition’s first term in power.
So much so that the then prime minister’s personal numbers were in the bathroom, just like Albo’s now.
Voters were left wondering what the point of the Howard government was. He fell behind in the polls, as a recent Freshwater poll shows how Labor is doing now.
Howard decided to change course. I wouldn’t die wondering. A lifelong advocate of tax reform, he announced plans to fight the impending election by arguing for the introduction of a goods and services tax, or GST.
It was something he had discarded while he was leader of the opposition, which made the politics of change interesting and risky.
Voters hoped Albo would bring hope and purpose to the highest office. But the Prime Minister (pictured) has no big ideas that he is willing to take to the next election.
Howard was quick to point out that its introduction would also mean the biggest income tax cuts in Australian history, ensuring take-home pay would soar.
And although he admitted to a setback, it would take him to an election to get a mandate. The then government hoped that this would overcome the broken promise.
The Coalition won the 1998 election, albeit narrowly, fighting for something significant. And Howard served a total of four terms in the top job, becoming the country’s second longest-serving Prime Minister.
So could we see something similar now? Is there a chance that the Labor Party will go into the next election advocating widespread tax reform or something more significant?
Tax experts have been calling for significant tax reform for years.
Recent rumors about negative gearing suggested that perhaps we would see such a debate, before the Prime Minister shut it down. It’s hard to imagine him reliving it between now and Election Day.
Doing so would be a double pike backflip.
Are we about to witness a Seinfeld election about nothing?
While the prospect of a significant policy-based electoral showdown is tempting, it is difficult to imagine this Labor government – let alone this Prime Minister – making tax reform the fight to save its political career.
That’s because Albo has never defined himself based on economic issues. To the extent that it has paid close attention to the great economic debates of our time, its leftist ideology on that front has long been rooted in a past that developed nations have left behind.
Albo even opposed the economic reforms of the Hawke and Keating era, and was on their side in politics. Their left-wing economic beliefs fit more closely with Greens policies than the mainstream tax reform ideas that economists might support. That’s why he keeps them private.
Albanese defines himself according to his social policy views, not economic ones, which is why he made Voice to Parliament his first task upon becoming Prime Minister.
The fact that the idea crashed and burned, exposing how out of touch he is with the Australian mainstream, pushed the prime minister into a political shell from which he cannot emerge.
In short, he is too afraid to be himself and come up with big ideas that live up to the reason he got involved in politics in the first place. Because those opinions are a relic of a bygone era.
So where does that leave us?
Well, it leaves this government somewhat rudderless when it comes to the content of its policies. And with such a leadership-lacking outlook, the Labor government is just pursuing, one by one, smaller policy ideas that individual ministers hold dear.
Changes to industrial relations, adjustments to super and stage three tax cuts are all examples. So were previous changes to immigration rules, which backfired completely and led to the minister being removed from his portfolio.
But these political ideas are not major changes anyway. They do not represent bold reforms that could give this Labor government a purpose to propel itself to fight the next election.
Instead, we are about to witness a campaign about nothing, at least as far as the government is concerned. A Seinfeld pick.
A first-term Labor government defending its own re-election based solely on the fact that it has only been there three years (so come on, try again!) and because it claims that the other mafia is not yet ready to come back in force.
That’s why the message is unlikely to be very successful. It could put Labor back in power, I don’t doubt it. But in a weakened state, perhaps reduced to a minority government that depends on the Greens to stay in office.
Even the prime minister tells those around him that he expects to lose his majority in the next election.
Anthony Albanese (pictured) is dining out because he is in power, but for what purpose?
That moment will see big political ideas come to the fore, except they won’t be dominant ideas. They will be the radical demands of the Greens if Labor is to secure their support for a second term.
If that happens, this leaderless and directionless Labor regime will probably accept almost anything simply to stay on the right side of the Treasury benches.
Because keeping the job is practically the only idea that Albo has left and that means something to him.
The goal of retaining power for power’s sake after a 30-year political career that will end if he doesn’t.
It’s bleak, it’s certainly not inspiring, but it’s all he has left at the moment.
And it is a far cry from the hope and purpose that many of Albo’s supporters thought his premiership would fulfill.
