Talking about Anthony Albanese rearranging his front bench might be a bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
While there is no guarantee that HMAS Labour will sink, many of its senior ministers are considering taking lifeboats and abandoning their political careers.
Names include ministers Linda Burney and Brendan O’Connor, and there is speculation that Education Minister Jason Clare could make it a triumvirate of cabinet ministers to remove the immobiliser.
These pre-election announcements would force major changes in Albo’s ministry, giving him the opportunity to also reshuffle the likes of Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles out of the home affairs and immigration portfolios, where they have presided over mistakes and failures.
Meanwhile, those looking to keep fighting and compete in the upcoming elections are already campaigning, in stark contrast to some who are not — a leading indicator of who stays and who goes.
Western Sydney MPs Tony Burke and Ed Husic have begun posting examples of their local community work on social media, something neither cabinet minister has done in recent months.
Clare’s presence in the community remains conspicuously absent, raising speculation that she could be a surprise departure at 52 years of age.
The official spokesperson for the Labour Party’s campaign at the last election, Clare holds the Blaxland seat once held by former Prime Minister Paul Keating.
Jason Clare’s community presence remains conspicuously absent, adding to speculation he could be a surprise departure at 52 years of age (pictured with Anthony Albanese in 2023 at an early learning centre in Queanbeyan)
Clare, long seen as a future Labour leader, has failed to live up to the high expectations many had for his political career.
Sources close to Clare say that if she is leaving politics now it is because she considers herself still young enough to pursue a second career outside politics, perhaps in the private sector.
Anthony Albanese, refreshed after a holiday in northern Australia, returns to reflect on both a possible reshuffle and the timing of an early election.
The reorganization can only be carried out once it is clear who wants to stay and who wants to go.
While demotions can also force political retirements, the Prime Minister would not want to redeploy someone to a senior portfolio who plans to leave proclaiming he is the right person for the job only to see him announce his retirement shortly after.
Jason Clare was Labour’s official spokesman at the last election, but there are signs he could be looking to leave early. Similar rumours are circulating around Linda Burney
Skills and Training Minister Brendan O’Connor could be part of a Labour Party shake-up
Australian Aboriginal Minister Linda Burney played a key role in Voice’s failed referendum and is widely expected to stand down.
With an eye on the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision, due on the first Tuesday of next month, Albo is also considering the timing of the next election. He won’t pull the trigger if he thinks the RBA will raise rates, either shortly before or during a campaign.
Daily Mail Australia has confirmed that Labor Party headquarters is conducting targeted polling and focus group research in an attempt to identify the issues voters are likely to cast their votes on and the standings of key marginal seats.
Seats won by the previous coalition government in Western Australia are at increased risk of returning to the conservatives. What happens in the west could determine whether Labor can retain its majority or not.
The head office investigation is also looking to identify seats that Greens candidates are threatening to take from Labor. Victorian MPs Peter Khalil and Josh Burns are considered to be in serious trouble. Seats in inner-city areas of Sydney and Brisbane could also be in jeopardy.
Burns barely managed to stave off a Greens challenge at the last election in his McNamara constituency and Khalil has faced threatening protests and disruptions at his Wills constituency office by pro-Palestinian activists. Khalil, in particular, has been busy campaigning in his local community.
The prime minister has been vigorous in trying to link these protests to Green activism. Despite the animosity between Labour and the Greens, recent opinion polls suggest that the possibility of Labour becoming dependent on Green support to form a government after the next election is increasing.