Despite the expectation that the next federal election is just around the corner, believe it or not, Labor can delay that election for almost a year.
That’s right, September 27, 2025 is actually the last possible date for a federal election to determine which major party will form government for the next three years.
While such a delay is highly unlikely (half a Senate election would be needed beforehand to make it possible) it means Labor would have time to bleed a new prime minister if it decides Albo has to go.
Could that happen? I highly doubt it, but a former Labor influencer now speculates that Albo is under siege as leaks and a lack of discipline take over against the backdrop of poor polls.
Opinion polls have tightened, with back-to-back Freshwater polls now putting the Coalition ahead of the Labor Party.
Albanese’s personal approval ratings have also plummeted, with the Coalition leading Labor as the preferred stewards of all the major issues at the forefront during the cost of living crisis Australians are enduring.
Added to this, today’s Newspoll reveals that Labor’s primary vote has collapsed in the twin states of New South Wales and Victoria, once government strongholds, and that Labor is struggling to make headway in Queensland, where the Coalition has most of the seats.
These are the largest states in the country that will likely decide the next election.
Despite the expectation that the next federal election is just around the corner, believe it or not, Labor can delay said election until almost a year from now.
Now Bill Shorten’s former chief of staff Cameron Milner has opened up the possibility of Labor dumping Albo for treasurer Jim Chalmers, suggesting last week’s leaked negative gearing story was designed to spill a bucket of you-know-what about Albo while making Chalmers look like a viable alternative leader.
“Chalmers looked like a leader on the world stage… while at home Albanese looked like a liar,” Milner wrote in a scathing column about the prime minister’s performance.
The Treasurer was on an official visit to China at the same time Albo dodged and weaved questions about whether his government was considering changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.
In a series of interviews, the prime minister appeared ill-informed and misleading with his rhetoric, not to mention irritated by the line of questioning.
While it is highly unlikely that the Labor Party will remove Albo as prime minister at this point in the next election – even knowing that the election does not need to be called for almost another 12 months – what may happen after the next election It’s a different story.
There are no guarantees that Albo will survive for long after a poor performance in the next election, even if the Labor Party manages to return as a minority government.
You can bet the political sharks will circle if the government’s seat ratio falls too much. Labor only needs to lose two seats it currently holds to lose its majority.
The Labor Party changed its leadership rules to avoid a repeat of the debilitating leadership clashes between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard between 2010 and 2013, when the party oscillated between the two only to lose its majority in the 2010 election before suffering a harsh defeat in 2013.
The new rules give ordinary Labor Party members (via a postal vote) half the say over who becomes Labor leader, with the other half going to Labor MPs and senators via a postal vote. the caucus room.
Tanya Plibersek is popular among secular members and a member of the left of the party.
The process can take months, which alone would be enough to save Albo from the ignominy of defeat this side of the next election.
Labor could not afford to risk the damage that such a protracted process would do to the government’s position if Albo were challenged and insisted on a procedural vote.
Additionally, the party’s secular membership is dominated by the left-wing faction, giving Albo the numbers he needs against people like Chalmers, who is a member of the right-wing faction.
Tanya Plibersek is popular among secular members and a member of the left of the party. But he would not be able to gather the necessary numbers to get Albo rolling, and that is without considering the parliamentary bench where he has even less support.
However, a poor election result could well change all that, with Labor members and MPs likely to question Albo’s ability to improve the party’s fortunes in the coming years.
The prime minister hopes to change his political fortunes and go to the polls later this year or early next year.
If it comes late this year, the aim will be to delay the federal election until after the Queensland state election on October 26, when voters are expected to oust the Labor government.
Albo will hope Queensland voters are more sympathetic to the federal Labor Party than current polls suggest if that happens.
But the reason for postponing and not holding the federal election until next year includes the hope that interest rates will fall when the Reserve Bank meets again after the Christmas holidays in February.
That likely leaves a window between late February and early May if the prime minister wants to prevent his government from passing another budget before election day.
