It’s official: Anthony Albanese is now a definite liability to the Labor vote.
The government trails the Coalition by 49 to 51 per cent in the two-party vote, according to today’s Newspoll.
The Labor primary vote is a meager 33 per cent compared to the Coalition’s 40 per cent.
If it were not for the preferences the Greens give to the Labor Party, the government’s two-party deficit would be larger than it currently is.
That the Greens’ preference flows to Labor is a harbinger of why the government continues to pander to its left flank, and a sure sign of the looming dependence a re-elected minority Labor government will have on Adam Bandt and his party.
That’s assuming Albo finds a way to win the next elections. Because current figures suggest that this is up in the air, despite the fact that no first-term government has failed to achieve re-election since 1931.
But none of them have had to deal with the kind of unpopular leader that this government is now.
Albo’s personal satisfaction rate is at rock bottom. A resounding 55 percent of voters are dissatisfied with his performance, compared to just 40 percent who are satisfied.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the Winter Ball earlier this year with his future wife Jodie Haydon.
That results in a net satisfaction rating of -15, disastrous for a first-term incumbent.
Joe Biden was suffering similarly terrible results in the polls before withdrawing from the presidential race.
We are used to opposition leaders being unpopular. Their job is to overthrow governments, which, while often effective, also results in personal unpopularity.
But Albo is a prime minister who has only been in office for two and a half years, still in his first term.
However, it is already in the crosshairs, acting as a maritime anchor for its government.
If Labor MPs thought they could orchestrate his removal, they would. But timing, the rules of leadership and the lack of an obvious alternative are now Albo’s best friends.
So why is the Prime Minister so unpopular?
This is the first Newspoll since news of the purchase of a $4.3 million beachfront vacation property broke.
This might not have registered with voters if the Prime Minister had not subsequently become embroiled in a business class upgrade scandal with Qantas.
An airline (with its former CEO Alan Joyce) that backed its unsuccessful attempt to install an Indigenous Voice in parliament was rejected by 60 per cent of Australians across all states.
The erosion of Albo’s connection with the majority of Australians did not end there. News of his musical chairs with members of his family accessing the Chairman’s Lounge has also circulated in the media.
Did anyone know that Albo grew up on the housing commission? He never mentions it, so maybe not.
The word among some of his senior colleagues is that they are worried he is now a drag on the Labor vote because Albo “now comes across as a class traitor”, as one MP told Daily Mail Australia.
Mr Albanese above sports a more casual look – a Newtown Jets t-shirt, ugg boots and Peter Alexander pajama pants – following his victory in the 2022 federal election.
While Albo once declared that he loves fighting conservatives, it seems to a growing number of Australians that he is now more interested in emulating their privilege.
Perhaps that is why Albo’s popularity continues to decline and the Labor Party’s electoral fortunes continue to decline.
Consider the outcome of last week’s election in the United States, where the return of Donald Trump to the presidency and the Republican majorities in the House and Senate dealt a severe blow to incumbent Democrats.
Could we be about to witness history being made when Australians go to the polls before the end of May next year? Witnessing a first-term government lose a re-election bid for the first time in almost 100 years?
I still say no. The most likely scenario is that Labor will win an ugly victory, relying on the Greens and other crossbench MPs to govern as a minority for a second term.
Even if interest rates do not fall in February next year, because domestic inflation is still too high.
But with the unpopular Albo leading the Labor Party’s re-election campaign (remembering that he is a lousy campaigner at best), anything is possible.