By the end of the century, the oceans could swell nearly seven feet – according to new research, nearly 200 million people would destroy the houses.
It would destroy more than a million square miles of agriculture and other food producing countries – with & # 39; profound implications for humanity & # 39 ;.
This is more than twice as many as the predictions of the previous & # 39; doomsday & # 39 ;, suggesting that the world is really dealing with an & # 39; apocalypse & # 39; from the earth. & # 39;
The shock finding is based on a technique called structured expert judgment (SEJ) that merged the knowledge of 22 climate change specialists.
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Forecasts remain challenging due to uncertainties regarding the fate of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The latest analysis suggests that the oceans could swell nearly seven feet by the end of the century – destroying the homes of nearly 200 million people
It builds a rational – rather than political – consensus by taking into account both uncertainties and diversity of opinions or perspectives.
In the first study of its kind, the international team found that conservation strategies should take into account future sea level rise (SLR) of more than 2 meters (6.55 ft).
Lead author Professor Jonathan Bamber, of the School of Geographical Sciences at Bristol University, said: & Such a rise in global sea level could result in a loss of 1.7 million square kilometers (1.1 million square miles).
& # 39; This includes critical regions & # 39; s of food production – and potential relocation of up to 187 million people. & # 39;
He added: & # 39; An SLR of this magnitude would clearly have profound consequences for humanity. & # 39;
The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, analyzed melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctic waters – and the resulting sea level rise.
It provides the most accurate understanding of their impact so far – with SLR posing a threat to coastal communities and ecosystems, the researchers said.
This will help in implementing adjustment strategies that include & # 39; quantitative projections & # 39; of future SLR based on numerical facts.
Such forecasts remain challenging due to uncertainties regarding the fate of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.
There are two important policy responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation.
The former addresses the root causes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while the latter attempts to reduce the risks of the consequences.
People have adapted to their environment in the course of history by developing practices, cultures and livelihoods that are adapted to local conditions.
These range from the Mediterranean siesta to the Vietnamese practice of building houses on stilts to protect against monsoon rains.
But climate change increases the possibility that existing societies will experience an unprecedented scale shift, storm frequency and flooding.
Adaptation measures include large-scale changes to the infrastructure – such as building defense works on the ocean.
So Prof. Bamber and colleagues asked the panel to offer plausible ranges for future ice accumulation, drainage and drainage for each of the ice sheets in Greenland, West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
This happened both in scenarios with low and high temperature rises.
Prof. Bamber said: & # 39; SEJ offers a formal approach to estimating uncertain quantities based on current scientific understanding, and may be useful for estimating quantities that are difficult to model.
& # 39; Projections of total global SLR with this method yielded a small but meaningful chance of an SLR of more than two meters by the year 2100 under the high temperature scenario.
& # 39; This was similar to & # 39; business as usual & # 39; and way above & # 39; probable & # 39; upper limit presented in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). & # 39;
That warned of a maximum 98 cm (3.2 ft) rise by 2100. Even this would threaten the survival of coastal cities and entire island nations.
Prof. Bamber and colleagues say that communities should not rule out a 21st-century SLR above two meters when developing adaptation strategies.
The study also gave experts the opportunity to discuss their scientific motives for the quantitative assessments they make about uncertainties regarding future contributions to the seabed.
This unique approach also served to identify a number of poorly understood, but potentially critical, processes such as & # 39; sea ice conservation instability, which may potentially occur in the future as important turning points in the response of the ice on the temperature rise.
Co-author Professor Willy Aspinall of Bristol's School of Earth Sciences, added: “It is hoped that the results can make decision makers more aware of potential high-end SLRs, which is crucial is for robust decision making.
& # 39; Limiting attention to & # 39; probable & # 39; range, as was the case in the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, can be misleading and probably lead to a poor evaluation of the actual risk & # 39;
WHAT DOES VERY LEVEL RISK MEAN FOR COASTAL CITIES?
Global sea levels can go up to 10 feet (3 meters) when the Thwaites glacier collapses in West Antarctica.
Sea level rises threaten cities from Shanghai to London, to low-lying parts of Florida or Bangladesh, and to entire countries, such as the Maldives.
In the UK, for example, a rise of 6.7 ft (2 meters) or more could result in areas such as Hull, Peterborough, Portsmouth and parts of East London and the Thames estuary threatening to collapse.
The collapse of the glacier, which could begin for decades, could also submerge large cities such as New York and Sydney.
Parts of New Orleans, Houston and Miami in the southern US would also be hit particularly hard.
A 2014 study viewed by the union of involved scientists looked at 52 sea level indicators in communities in the US.
Flood floods in many Eastern and Gulf Coast locations have been shown to increase dramatically, based on a conservative estimate of predicted sea level rises based on current data.
The results showed that most of these communities will experience a sharp increase in the number and severity of tidal floods in the coming decades.
By 2030, more than half of the 52 communities surveyed are expected to experience on average at least 24 tidal floods per year in exposed areas, assuming moderate sea level projections. Twenty of these communities could see a tripling or more in flood-flooded events.
The Atlantic coast is expected to experience some of the largest increases in the frequency of flooding. Places such as Annapolis, Maryland and Washington DC can expect more than 150 tidal waves per year, and at different locations in New Jersey 80 floods or more can occur.
In the UK, an increase of two meters (6.5 ft) by 2040 would almost completely submerge large parts of Kent, according to the results of an article published in November 2016 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.
Areas on the south coast such as Portsmouth, as well as Cambridge and Peterborough would also be hit hard.
Cities and villages around the mouth of the Humber such as Hull, Scunthorpe and Grimsby would also experience intense flooding.
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