The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be “extraordinary” as officials have revealed the most aggressive May outlook ever.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) held a live briefing Thursday to discuss the preseason outlook, forecasting 25 named storms that could result in up to 13 hurricanes.
NOAA officials said there could also be up to seven tropical cyclones with wind speeds of 111 miles per hour that could reach Category 3 or higher, the highest outlook ever given by the agency.
An above-average season is considered to have 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The predictions are based on the development of La Niña, a weather system that occurs when equatorial trade winds strengthen and cause changes in ocean currents, and much warmer than usual in the main hurricane development region.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “extraordinary” as officials have estimated there could be up to 13 tropical cyclones.
“The forecast … is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said during the news conference.
“This season seems extraordinary in several ways.”
He went on to explain that this forecast is the most comprehensive in the 25 years that NOAA has been issuing in May.
About 20 other groups (universities, other governments, private weather companies) have also made seasonal forecasts.
All but two expect a more intense and unpleasant summer and fall for hurricanes.
The previous record was in 2010, when NOAA’s outlook showed between 14 and 23 named storms that spawned 12 hurricanes.
And although La Niña also fueled the powerful season 14 years ago, this year’s ocean temperatures in 2024 will be nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.
La Niña generally reduces high-altitude winds that can decapitate hurricanes, and generally during La Niña there is more instability or storms in the atmosphere, which can lead to hurricane development.
On top of that, ocean waters have been record hot for 13 months straight.
Ocean temperatures in the development region are closer to what is typically seen in June, not May.
The 2005 hurricane season broke records with 15 events, but NOAA data has shown that the main development region is much warmer this year than it was 19 years ago.
NOAA predicted that up to 13 of the named storms could become hurricanes and up to seven could have wind speeds of 111 miles per hour; An average season sees 14 named storms, seven of which lead to hurricanes and three to major storms.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, said: “Hurricanes feed on warm ocean water.
“That tends to be basically fuel for the hurricane. But also when we have the warm Atlantic, what that tends to do is also force more air up over the Atlantic, more upward motion, which helps support strong storms.
The 2005 hurricane season broke records with 15 events, but NOAA data has shown that the main development region is much warmer this year than it was 19 years ago.
Brian McNoldy, a tropical meteorology researcher at the University of Miami, said: “We’ve never had La Niña combined with such warm ocean temperatures in recorded history, so that’s a little ominous.”
McNoldy also shared that we could see storms earlier than normal due to the mix: Hurricane season typically peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
Record warm water appears to be the key, McNoldy said.
“Things really went off the rails last spring (2023) and haven’t gotten back to normal since,” he said.
There are also factors helping the 2024 season gain speed, including lower levels of wind shear that would otherwise stop smaller storms.
NOAA also highlighted the Most intense and wet African monsoon season.
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said: “We have warm water and an active monsoon season.” Check check.
“Don’t expect much cutting, check,” Graham said. “Everything has to come together for a forecast like this.”
