Wheeler has no run support and Phillies look cold offensively in final weekend originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
WASHINGTON – For the second time in four years, Zack Wheeler dominated in the month of September to cap a Cy Young-caliber season.
And for the second time in four years, he’s in an extremely tight race for the prize every newcomer craves.
The Phillies could have made it easier with run support in their final start on Saturday, but were stifled in seven of nine innings by Mackenzie Gore and the Nationals bullpen in a 6-3 loss.
The Phillies have been outscored 15-4 in consecutive losses in DC after securing a playoff bye Wednesday at home. Now they are locked into the second seed. The Dodgers will have home field advantage in the National League Championship Series if they advance. The Phillies have an advantage over the other five teams in the National League.
The Phillies’ opponent in the NLDS will be the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets or Braves. They can’t face the Padres, who are locked in fourth place.
“We’d like to have home field advantage, but it’s not the end of the world,” Wheeler said. “We still have home field advantage at least for a while and we just have to get there. We’ll worry about that later.”
Wheeler was his typical overwhelming self, striking out 11 and advancing to rookie James Wood’s two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth. The pitch count was manageable and he and Rob Thomson had discussed a few days in advance letting Wheeler reach 200 innings, as long as he didn’t risk injury to get there. If it’s not a stress-filled outing, Sunday should be the same with Aaron Nola, who is 5⅔ away.
Based on traditional statistics, workload, advanced metrics and his consistent excellence in the highest-pressure starts of his career, Wheeler has been the best pitcher in baseball since 2020, his first year with the Phillies. However, there is a chance that the 1A of this era will not win a Cy Young due to circumstances beyond his control. Pitchers like Wheeler make you think it’s easy, but staying healthy and doing what he’s done year after year since 2020 is nothing to take for granted.
Wheeler finished 16-8 with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 224 and allowing the lowest hit rate in the league.
“I just told you it’s been an incredible year,” Thomson said when asked about the conversation with Wheeler when he eliminated him at exactly 200 innings. “To me, that’s Cy Young worthy.”
In 2021, Wheeler (141 voting points) finished just behind Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (151) in the Cy Young race. Wheeler pitched 46⅓ more innings, the equivalent of eight additional starts for Burnes. It was a polarizing result that, in retrospect, only seems worse.
This time, it’s Chris Sale. The 35-year-old left-hander leads the league in wins (18-3), ERA (2.38) and strikeouts (225) and has the lowest home run rate in baseball. He also has narrative on his side: an aging and oft-injured former ace who surprisingly vaulted back to the top level nearly a decade after a near-miss Cy Young series.
“I did the best I could,” Wheeler said. “Chris had a really good year too and he certainly deserves it. It’s great to see him back after missing the last four years or whatever. Good for him and happy to see him back with Chris Sale.
“It’s the goal: nowadays it’s to get 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, get some wins, try to help the team as best I can. I didn’t feel as consistent as the numbers probably look like, but I got the job done and I’m happy with that. “
Wheeler has the edge over Sale in WHIP (0.96 to 1.01), opponents’ batting average (.192 to .216) and innings (200 to 177⅔).
He pitched to a 1.89 ERA in his last 11 starts to keep pace. Those 11 starts represent the longest streak in Phillies history of two runs or fewer. At this point, their ERAs are close enough that Wheeler’s innings advantage could negate the difference in the minds of some voters.
Wheeler had a 1.55 ERA in nine starts against teams in the NL playoff field.
It held right-handed hitters to the second-lowest OPS (.439) in the majors in the last 50 years, or as long as platoon divisions have been tracked.
It was a historically good season for Wheeler, his best as a Phillie. In March, he signed a three-year, $126 million extension covering 2025-27, the fourth-highest annual figure in baseball history behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. He added a splitter to his arsenal and spoke in spring training about his hope the pitch would take him to an even higher level. He mentioned the Cy Young Award as his goal.
And then he went out and exceeded expectations in 32 starts.
He said it didn’t feel as consistent as the numbers, but the numbers are what they are. Did it feel like the best season of your career?
“When I step back and look at it, that’s probably how it is,” he said. “I felt a little more dominant in 2021, but I’m not too worried about that right now.”
Wheeler will pitch Game 1 of the NLDS at Citizens Bank Park for the Phillies, regardless of the opponent. He will also be able to throw a theoretical Game 5, with five days of rest. It is very important for the Phillies to know that they will start him in 40% of their games in a round.
Wheeler recorded his eighth strikeout starting the bottom of the fifth on Saturday and had allowed just one hit and no runs to that point. Luis García then singled up the middle and Wood hit a long fly ball just over the left field wall for a two-run home run.
The Phillies tied the game in the top of the eighth on a two-out, 0-for-2 home run by Trea Turner, his 21st. José Ferrer’s next pitch was near Bryce Harper’s head and Harper and Ferrer had words after an inning-ending strikeout. The benches and bullpens were cleared but order was quickly restored.
The Nationals’ winning runs came against Jeff Hoffman in a rare ugly appearance. Wood tripled to lead off the bottom of the eighth and scored on Keibert Ruiz’s single. Dylan Crews extended the inning with two outs and Joey Gallo hit a three-run homer. Hoffman allowed one earned run in just nine of 68 appearances this season.
The only remaining issue with home field advantage for the Phillies concerns the World Series. They will clinch victory over the Yankees and Guardians with a victory on Sunday.
A more immediate concern is alignment. The last thing a playoff team wants before a five-day layoff is a freezing weekend against one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball and that’s exactly what the Phillies are experiencing.
“It’s a lot different,” Turner said of the playoffs. “You’re going to play a good quality team, everything is on the line, guys are going to throw a little bit differently, managers are going to manage differently.
“Finishing well (in the regular season) doesn’t matter, finishing poorly doesn’t matter. We haven’t played our best in the last week, but once the postseason starts, all that is behind us and it’s about competing in that.” moment.”