A minority coalition government is becoming a distinct possibility as a new poll reveals support for the Labour Party continues to plummet.
Equally significant, when voters are asked to compare the major parties’ positions on the most important issues, the opposition comes out on top.
The latest Freshwater poll shows Anthony Albanese’s primary vote in Labor falling to just 30 per cent, compared to 42 per cent primary support for the Coalition.
On a two-party preference basis, that leaves Labor trailing the Coalition by 48 to 52 percent.
Such an outcome on election day would likely see the Coalition win more seats than Labor, but fall just short of its own majority.
From the Prime Minister down, the assumption in the corridors of power has long been that, due to the existence of the Teals and growing support for the Greens, Peter Dutton is unlikely to be able to form a minority government.
Despite its declining political fortunes, the Labour Party has therefore been seen as the party with the best chance of retaining government, although it needs support from all sectors.
Hello, minority government? The chances of Peter Dutton forming a government with the help of independents at the next election are increasing… with the opposition being judged more favourably on the issues
Albo has been telling those close to him that he does not believe he can win with a Labour majority of his own, admitting that the government will probably need the support of independents to govern for a second term.
This means that the Greens’ role in a second term of a Labour government is virtually guaranteed.
But the previous certainty that only Labour could seriously consider forming a minority government after the next election is now being called into question by the worsening political environment for government.
This is confirmed by today’s opinion poll.
If Dutton’s opposition can secure just 71 of the 150 House seats on offer at the next election, it will be able to form its own minority government.
She would need the support of right-wing and centrist independent MPs such as Bob Katter, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender and Helen Haines.
Andrew Wilkie, who as an independent Tasmanian MP supported a minority Labor government in 2010 when parliament was last hung, would have to be appointed speaker by the above figures to hand Dutton the keys to The Lodge.
That’s assuming the Greens and the rest of the independents refused to consider Dutton as prime minister.
For people like Spender and Haines to support a coalition government, they would also need to win significant political concessions.
That could include abandoning Dutton’s nuclear energy policy and agreeing to greater transparency around government regulations.
Sources close to the opposition leader say neither compromise is likely to happen, meaning a Dutton minority government might need closer to 73 or 74 seats to be a viable option without the support of Spender or Haines.
Labor, which currently holds 78 seats compared to the Coalition’s 58, could see its seat share fall to around 60 if the election day result is similar to Freshwater, losing seats to both the Liberal Party and the Greens.
If the Coalition were to win more seats than Labor, it should be given the first opportunity to form a minority government.
However, as acting prime minister, Governor-General Sam Mostyn is likely to follow Albanese’s advice that he could continue to govern with a minority support lower than the Coalition’s while waiting for the numbers to be tested on the floor of Parliament.
If that were to happen, we would only have to see how the parliamentarians voted when the first motion of censure was presented, as well as when the subsequent supply votes took place.
Labour loses on issues
While the worsening primaries and two-party voting for Labor will give party strategists something to think about as they assess the timing of the next election, it is not the only figure that would give them pause.
Voters believe Labour handles two issues better: the environment (30 to 23 percent) and “wellbeing and benefits” (39 to 29 percent).
And given concerns that excessive government spending is contributing to high inflation and a stubborn refusal to let interest rates come down, it is questionable whether Labour’s better performance at distributing welfare and government spending is really an advantage.
In contrast, Labor trails the Coalition by significant margins on issues such as national security (23 to 42 per cent), cost of living (24 to 38 per cent), management of the economy (25 to 41 per cent) and “taxation and government spending” (24 to 39 per cent).
Labor even trails the Coalition on which party is best placed to handle housing, by 26 to 32 per cent, which may have something to do with the Prime Minister’s poor decision to redeploy his failed Home Secretary Clare O’Neil to the Housing portfolio.
According to the AFR-Freshwater poll, Labor is lagging behind the Coalition on a number of issues. They are only ahead on social welfare and environmental issues, according to the survey.
After all the problems in his previous portfolio, it is not surprising that Labor also trails the Coalition as preferred handler of immigration and asylum issues, by 25 to 40 per cent.
On housing, 42 percent of respondents said that none of the main parties were capable of managing the housing crisis.
This follows constant attacks from the Greens who argue that major changes must be made to policies on housing taxes and concessions.
This could be a key negotiating point for the Greens with Labour if Albanese forms a minority government after the election.
With the next election due in May next year, the current grim figures for the government will leave many within the Labour Party wondering whether things can be improved by delaying the election.
Perhaps going to the polls early, before the situation worsens, is the government’s best chance of returning to power.
No newly elected government has failed to win re-election since the Labour Party lost the 1931 election in the midst of the Great Depression.