When did you realize that this weekend’s wild card games really, well… sucked? Was it when Justin Herbert threw his fourth interception? When Pittsburgh punted for the fourth straight time to open the game? When Denver got eliminated again and again?
Thank goodness for the Tampa Bay-Washington Divisional Doink that stopped a streak of four consecutive ugly football games. Without that, we would have had a relentless weekend of terrible pro football…a stark contrast to the two instant college football playoff classics that led to the NFL playoffs.
This first round of the NFL playoffs (let’s not call it “Super Wild Card Weekend” anymore, the NFL quietly shattered that horrible record) actually replicated the first round of the CFP in all the wrong ways. In each of the first four games, three of which were certified blowouts, the home team dusted off the visitors without much trouble or drama. The four winners captured leads they would never relinquish in the first half, sometimes early (Philadelphia, 101 seconds into the game) and sometimes late (Houston, 58 seconds before halftime). At the end of all four games, the announcers were already anticipating the next round’s matchup long before the clock hit zero.
The simple truth about football, both at the college and professional level, is this: the gap between the elite teams and everyone else is enormous and virtually unbridgeable. (And the Chargers’ ability to cut their feet remains unmatched.) Only the single-game variation of football allows unexpected results to occasionally emerge; If the Bills played the Broncos in a best-of-seven, Denver would be lucky to force a Game 6.
The six-game wild card round has variations, but tends toward a familiar pattern. Since the playoffs grew to six wild-card weekend games in 2020, the top seed tends to win, and they win by an increasing margin.
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In 2024, there will be a maximum of two one-possession games if Minnesota and the Rams stay close on Monday night. The top finisher has won four out of five so far.
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In 2023, only one of the first round games was closer than 14 points. (The Lions defeated the Rams, 24-23.) The top seed won five of six.
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In 2022, there were actually four one-possession games, including Jacksonville’s comeback from a 27-0 deficit. The top finisher won four out of six.
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In 2021, there were two one-possession games and the top seed won five of six.
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In 2020, when the playoffs began, there were three possession games. The top finisher won only two of six, but 2020 was a strange year that shouldn’t count for anything anyway.
What does all this mean for the playoffs going forward? Well, just as adding ice cubes to your beer won’t improve the taste much, adding more teams to the playoffs won’t affect the competitive balance of the postseason. Because, let’s remember… you’re not adding those teams to the top of the chart.
Combine the inevitable expansion of the NFL playoffs to 16 teams with the inevitable expansion of the overall league to 18 games, and you can see where we’re headed: more playoff losses, more lower-ranked teams in the postseason.
The argument for an expanded postseason is obvious: more teams = more fans invested in the playoff race = more revenue. But remember what the playoff “race” was like this year: Only three teams were still in contention in Week 18 and didn’t make the postseason, and the Falcons, Dolphins and Bengals didn’t exactly spend this season covering themselves in glory just to fall short at the last second. The NFL has a lot of bad teams every year, and allowing two more of them to make the postseason will do nothing to improve the overall product.
There is always the possibility of achieving a miraculous finish like Washington-Tampa Bay. But chances are that on every Wild Card weekend going forward, the Texans’ annual Saturday afternoon brawl will be the rule, rather than the unwatchable exception.