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We’re two games into Week 17 and bettors who like to take favorites are happy.
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens were the road favorites and both won and covered the spread with ease. Maybe that’s a sign of things to come. At the end of the season, when teams are dealing with a lot of injuries and are out of the playoff race, we will see some of the underdogs get eliminated. Perhaps Christmas Day was the first sign of a big week for the favorites.
Here’s a preview of Week 17 from a betting perspective, with all BetMGM odds:
Thursday night: Seahawks a growing road favorite
It’s hard to root for the Chicago Bears. They are 4-11. They haven’t won since October 13. The last three weeks they have lost by a combined 60 points. The point difference reflects that. The Seattle Seahawks are 4-point favorites for Thursday night. That line has moved with the action in Seattle. The Seahawks were -3 very early in the week, then -3.5 and reached -4.
The Seahawks aren’t in great shape either, and their hopes of winning the NFC West now depend on winning this week and getting help from the Arizona Cardinals, who have to beat the Los Angeles Rams for Seattle to stay alive. The good news for Seattle is that it will be pretty warm for a late December night in Chicago, with temperatures forecast in the 40s. The Bears haven’t been good lately, maybe they have one more decent game before the offseason.
Saturday: 3 games with playoff implications
The NFL kept some spots open for Saturday in Week 17, trying to get three intriguing games for a tripleheader. And all three are important for the playoff race. The least interesting game is the first. The Los Angeles Chargers face the New England Patriots and are 4-point favorites. The Chargers clinch a wild card spot in the AFC playoffs with a win. They will be motivated against a bad New England team.
The second game is the best of the three. The Cincinnati Bengals are three-point favorites against the Denver Broncos. The Bengals need to win and then hope to get help to make the playoffs, but they are alive and we will presumably do their best. The Bengals will be a popular team.
Game 3 also matters because the Los Angeles Rams will be in position to clinch the NFC West with a win if Seattle loses on Thursday night. The Rams are a heavy 6.5-point favorite over a Cardinals team that was eliminated from the playoffs last week.
Interesting loser: Can the Panthers keep this up?
The Carolina Panthers are playing hard. We saw that Sunday when they beat the Arizona Cardinals in overtime. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very good and chasing an NFC South title, but being an 8-point favorite over the Panthers is surprising. The Panthers are capable of being beaten (they were defeated 30-14 by the Dallas Cowboys at home two weeks ago), but Carolina has played well enough lately to get the benefit of the doubt.
Game of the week: Packers vs. Vikings
Because the NFL scheduled games on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night and Monday for Week 17, Sunday’s daytime programming is a bit light. However, there is a marquee game.
The Green Bay Packers (11-4) face the Minnesota Vikings (12-3). The Packers are surprisingly 1-point favorites. The Vikings have already won at Lambeau Field this season. Minnesota could be eliminated in the NFC North race if they lose and the Lions win (against the 49ers on Monday night), so it’s not like the Vikings aren’t playing for nothing. It’s a nod to the Packers, who are playing very well at the end of the season. It is also disrespectful towards the Vikings. How many teams that have a record like 13-2 and are not starters are the home losers? It should be a fantastic game, one of the few on Sunday.
Player of the Week Prop: Any Josh Allen Over
Allen is coming off a quiet week and can’t afford another in a tight MVP race. The Buffalo Bills care about winning games, but it’s hard to believe they also don’t care about giving Allen a big MVP push. Buffalo faces the New York Jets, which isn’t the best matchup for a quarterback. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see Allen put up some nice stats. Not all of Allen’s totals increased at BetMGM on Thursday, but more than 1.5 touchdown passes increased and it’s a good start.
Sunday night: Jayden Daniels vs. Michael Penix Jr.
It’s always fun to watch rookie quarterbacks duke it out, and there are a couple of interesting rookies on Sunday night. Daniels takes the Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the Washington Commanders, and Penix is coming off a strong debut with the Atlanta Falcons. The Commanders are 4-point favorites. The Falcons win the NFC South by winning, and seemed reinvigorated under Penix last week. Maybe that was simply because he played against a bad New York Giants team. Either way, the Falcons could keep this close, although that will require containing Daniels. That’s not easy.
Monday night: Lions chase NFC North and No. 1 seed
The Detroit Lions against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 looked like a Game of the Year candidate when it was scheduled. The Lions did their part. They are 13-2 and still hoping to grab first place in the NFC. The 49ers are 6-9 and plagued by injuries. If there is one more good performance for the 49ers, it will be on a Monday night against a very good (and very injured) Lions team. The Lions have a 3.5-point lead, which shows a little respect for the 49ers. Not many other 6-9 teams would score just 3.5 points against the Lions. If the Vikings lose on Sunday, the Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win on Monday night. If the Vikings win, the Lions suddenly don’t have much to play for because a Week 18 game against the Vikings will determine whether they win the division title and first place. The point spread could vary depending on what happens in Minnesota on Sunday.