If Saquon Barkley dreams of winning the NFL MVP, maybe he should call Cooper Kupp.
In 2021, Kupp had one of the best individual seasons in league history. He won the receiving triple crown with a ridiculous line of 145 receptions, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. And that’s why he got a vote for NFL MVP. Aaron Rodgers won in what was ultimately a forgettable season for him.
Kupp probably wasn’t surprised. The NFL MVP changed in 2014, when JJ Watt was clearly the best player in the league but lost the MVP to an ultimately forgettable season from Rodgers. That’s when he fully became a prize for whichever quarterback was at the front of the line when the season ended. For 12 of the last 15 seasons, and each of the last seven seasons, the MVP has been a No. 1 quarterback.
However, Barkley’s 255-yard game against the Rams has given him some much-needed MVP feel at the end of the season. Barkley might have a chance, which is rare for a non-quarterback. Here’s what you’ll probably have to do to win the prize:
Set the single-season rushing record, or at least eclipse 2,000 yards: Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 yards has stood since 1984. Barkley is on pace for 2,150.5 yards. Breaking an iconic record would give him a boost. Getting to 2,000 would help. Four of the eight 2,000-yard rushers in NFL history won MVP. No running back since 1993 has won without a 2,000-yard season or setting a single-season touchdown record. Would Barkley win if he finishes with, say, 1,950 yards? Ask Kupp how that goes.
Eagles get No. 1 seed: The overemphasis on picking an MVP quarterback from a No. 1 seed is infuriating, but it’s part of the formula now. The non-QB faces long odds to win and probably can’t leave any boxes unchecked. If the Eagles can overtake the Lions for the top spot, that would eliminate voters opting for someone like Jared Goff. And Barkley could argue that he’s the most valuable player at a No. 1 spot. That matters.
Quarterbacks make a mistake: Barkley is on a record pace after a massive game on a nationally televised stage, and he’s still not the favorite for MVP. It’s actually a little behind. At BetMGMThe favorite is Josh Allen (+150 odds) followed by Lamar Jackson (+220), then Barkley (+650) and Goff (+700). Everyone else is at least 10 to 1. You’ll hear a lot this week about Barkley’s MVP chances, and he’s in the conversation, but those odds are a reminder that if there’s a QB who can win, that’s it. what will happen. Barkley probably needs a stumble from Allen, Jackson and maybe even Goff. This is how the prize looks now.
Barkley is having an extraordinary season. But he still needs a few things to happen to win the NFL MVP.