Table of Contents
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday 16:30 EST/21:30 GMT)
What the Texans must do to win: CJ Stroud needs to continue his upward trajectory. After converting what would have been an ugly fumble deep in his own half at the start of a 23-point unanswered run against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, the Houston quarterback seemed to shake off his winter blues in the same moment he found Xavier Hutchinson outside. open down field. Stroud needs to trust his instincts to make up for a poor offensive line, but most importantly, he needs to have faith in Nico Collins. The receiver will be under the blanket coverage of Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid due to the Texans’ lack of another significant threat on the field, but his notable ability to make catches in heavy traffic will be crucial if his team is to keep pace with the Chiefs. Oh, and in games where Collins has 150 or more receiving yards, the Texans are 4-0, so just keep it flowing your way. Easy.
What the Chiefs must do to win: After going through the warm up for this game December 27-19 It’s hard to see what teachers need to add to their game plan to stay one step and one point ahead. However, they should be prepared for a battle with Houston’s defense. The pass rush on Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter is immense, while the cornerback tandem of Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassiter dominated the Chargers with a trio of interceptions between them last weekend. Patrick Mahomes needs to watch his back while also being very careful with his ball placement in light of Houston’s clear advantage over Kansas City in the backfield and the trenches.
Key player: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. It’s good that the big 2024 sandbag season has finally come to an end and the real Kelce can come out and play. A 25-day layoff will allow the 35-year-old to resume his role as target leader and red zone killer.
Prediction: Bosses over jeans.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Saturday 8 pm EST/Sunday 1 am GMT)
What commanders must do to win: Head coach Dan Quinn has to stay aggressive to keep Washington from being blown away. Their 87% fourth down conversion rate leads the league and was a major factor in beating Tampa Bay in the wild card round. The five attempts they had against the Bucs ensured they maintained a high-scoring offense, something they will find again against the Lions. The final fourth down conversion, which resulted in a five-yard touchdown for Terry McLaurin, is the perfect example of how his aggression often produces results. The Commanders could have kicked a field goal to cut a 17-13 deficit to one point and relied on their defense to stop it. Instead, Quinn gambled or, as he said after the game, was “bold, but not reckless.”
What the Lions must do to win: Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn needs to take risks with his playmaking to bring rookie sensation Jayden Daniels back down to earth. The bye week will have helped the Lions recover from a long season, but three cornerbacks remain on injured reserve, so to protect his secondary, Glenn has to try to pressure Daniels into making mistakes. Against Minnesota in the final regular season game, Detroit pressured Sam Darnold on 28.9% of his dropbacks, forcing a completion rate of just 44%, while in the previous game against the 49ers, Brock Purdy was pressured on 23.7% of dropbacks. He was sacked twice and threw two interceptions. As a rookie, Daniels has proven to be better than those players at handling pressure, but in the biggest game of his young career, the risk of a handful of costly plays is worth the reward for Detroit.
Key players: Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, RB, Lions. The bye week may have been more beneficial for Gibbs after losing Montgomery for three games to close out the season. Gibbs now has his running mate back for a change of pace in close-distance situations. The elite duo could easily expose a Washington defense outmatched by their pace and power.
Prediction: Lions over commanders.
Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 3:00 pm EST/8:00 pm GMT)
What the Rams must do to win: The Eagles have one of the best cornerback pairings in the NFL with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, so deep passes to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp should be limited to keep Philadelphia’s tandem guessing if a long bomb will come their way. Otherwise, the opportunities that are under its coverage should be taken advantage of. Running back Kyren Williams and tight end Tyler Higbee will likely play important roles in the passing game, while Nacua and Kupp can be effective in the slot on short catches.
What the Eagles must do to win: Philadelphia has to find more in the passing game after relying on a defensive masterclass to beat Green Bay. Jalen Hurts threw for just 121 yards last weekend, with a stretch of seven incompletions from the end of the first quarter to midway through the third. A repeat of that cold snap could spell Philadelphia’s undoing. Los Angeles will be exhausted stopping the run after Saquon Barkley ran them over for a ridiculous 255 yards and two touchdowns when these teams met in November, so Hurts will have to get more involved. He has to improve his game even with a slowed Barkley who can probably still find most of the offensive production.
Key player: AJ Brown, WR, Eagles. After a calm performance there always comes an overcorrection. Hurts would be wise to continue the tradition and target his star receiver as much as possible after Brown felt involved enough to make a light read during the win over Green Bay. Brown has proven to be a difficult cover for the Rams in their last two games. He caught six of his seven targets for 109 yards and a touchdown earlier this season and six of eight targets for 127 yards in 2023.
Prediction: Rams over Eagles.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6 pm EST/11 pm GMT)
What the Ravens must do to win: Baltimore needs to keep riding Derrick Henry. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who have a great defense, knew exactly what awaited them and still couldn’t hold out in the wild card round. The running back’s 186 yards against Pittsburgh last weekend prove that keeping Henry in check is nearly impossible. Like the Steelers, the Bills have a good run defense, and yet Henry posted a season-high 199 rushing yards in an easy 35-10 win over Buffalo in September. The running back’s dominance should also help calm any Lamar Jackson jitters.
What the Bills must do to win: With a defense as solid as Baltimore’s, it’s hard to find weaknesses. But if there’s one flaw Josh Allen can identify, it’s the Ravens’ inside linebackers. Roquan Smith and Malik Harrison provide limited pass coverage so the Bills can target the middle of the field like they did against Detroit’s similarly underpowered linebackers in December. The Bills running backs thrived in the passing game in the 48-42 penalty shootout victory over the Lions while James Cook, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson combined for 156 receiving yards and a score. Meanwhile, Johnson once again showed that he is an excellent pass defender with his miraculous touchdown grab on fourth-and-one against the Broncos last week. Short, accurate throws to the running back trio will hurt Baltimore.
Key player: Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens. Baltimore’s passing defense has transformed since the team moved Hamilton to deep safety, but defensive coordinator Zach Orr might be wise to play him closer to the line of scrimmage to spy on Allen. Hamilton’s size and speed make him very suitable for limiting the swashbuckling quarterback on the ground.
Prediction: Crows on bills.