Los Angeles Times NFL Writer Farmer Sam examines this week’s matchups in the NFC and AFC championship games. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Farmer had a regular season winning percentage of .695 and, using the point spread against the scores Farmer predicted, .533 against the spread. Divisional round playoff record was 2-2 (.500); overall playoffs 6-4 (.600). Use point spreads with the farmer predicted scoresthe record against the spread would have been 1-3 (.250); overall playoffs 4-6 (.400). Pacific Times. The television channels are local to Los Angeles.
NFC: No. 6 Washington vs. No. 2 Philadelphia

Sunday, noon. TV: Channel 11 (Fox), Fox Deportes
Line: Eagles by 6½. More/Less: 47½.
How Commanders Can Win: Let rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels do his thing. He is not worried about big moments. Defensively, it is a decisive matchup for Washington. The Commanders need to find a way to stop running back Saquon Barkley or receiver AJ Brown. After Barkley rushed for over 100 yards against them in the first quarter of Week 16, the Commanders clamped down on him the rest of the way. Brown has always been a problem for them. Washington doesn’t have a great run defense, as Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs showed in the divisional round. The Commanders tend to get in their own way with penalties and turnovers, so if they can limit them… A key player to watch on defense is cornerback Marshon Lattimore, twice called for pass interference while covering Brown last month. past.
How the Eagles can win: They need to run the ball. That’s his formula. Barkley tends to beat the defense early and usually breaks through at some point. Defensively, the Eagles have limited their explosive plays, done enough to stop the run, and tend to force turnovers, something they didn’t do as well earlier in the season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts can’t turn the ball over, and he’s been pretty good at it and careful about avoiding risky throws. His left leg hurts (we still don’t know how much) and that could be a problem if it limits his mobility. Although it is hard. On defense, tackle Jalen Carter is a wrecking ball. He draws so many double teams that he frees up his teammates with one-on-ones. Still, the key is defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. It has made everyone better.
Prediction: The Eagles likely would have swept both games with the Commanders if not for Hurts’ concussion in their last outing. Daniels is so poised and so attractive that he is going to present big problems. These division opponents know each other well, and Hurts’ injury could end up making the Eagles a little more one-dimensional. There could be a surprise in the works. Commanders 30, Eagles 28
AFC: No. 2 Buffalo at No. 1 Kansas City

Sunday, 3:30. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), Paramount+
Line: Bosses for 1½. More/Less: 47½.
How the Bills can win: Buffalo has routinely beaten Kansas City in the regular season, but that hasn’t carried over to the playoffs. However, these bills are more flexible than in previous years, perhaps because relatively few people expected them to go this far. They are a powerful running team and have continued to demonstrate that in this postseason, establishing a strong running game against the top two run defenses. Quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and while he doesn’t have a clear No. 1 receiver, that’s actually a strength. As the Bills like to say, “Everybody eats.” They don’t deliver the ball. Defensively, they need to have Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the ground. He has hurt Buffalo in the past with off-time plays, keeping plays alive with his legs. The Bills have to make the tackles.
How the Chiefs can win: The Chiefs are still looking for a way to limit Allen. In the games where they beat him, they basically outscored him. Kansas City’s defense has had trouble stopping the quarterback’s runs. Limiting possessions is key. When these teams met in the playoffs last season, Buffalo had just eight possessions and of the first five, four went 70 yards or more. The Bills have some vulnerabilities in their secondary, but the Chiefs need to get their receiving game going. Xavier Worthy was the only Chiefs receiver to catch a pass last week. We could see another game where the tight ends are targeted the most. So get ready, Travis Kelce.
Prediction: This feels like a make-or-break year for Buffalo, especially with how calm and confident this team is. It’s always risky to bet against Mahomes, especially with so much on the line, but Buffalo can control the pace with an extremely balanced attack and keep him on the sidelines. Bills 27, Chiefs 24
This story originally appeared on Los Angeles Times.