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New Zealand Is Facing COVID-19 Models, But When Will Australia Release Its Projections?

New Zealand releases confrontational models that show up to 33,600 people can die across the ditch – so when will Australia show its projections?

  • Experts want the Australian government to release their coronavirus modeling
  • Disclosure of the projection data is important to maintain confidence in the system
  • Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the virus writes its own line

New Zealand officials have released a confrontational projection, showing that up to 33,600 people across the country may die from the coronavirus.

The shocking figures come after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ordered a month-long shutdown to slow the spread of the deadly virus.

Guided by the pandemic modeling of the country, the leader of the Kiwi shared the information with the public to assure them that the closure was necessary.

Experts have criticized Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s decision not to follow Ms. Ardern’s example and to release Australia’s COVID-19 modeling.

A nurse (above) tests a member of the public on a COVID-19 ride through a test center in Auckland, New Zealand

A nurse (above) tests a member of the public on a COVID-19 ride through a test center in Auckland, New Zealand

Not a single car on Wellington's State Highway 1 in New Zealand after the country closed for a month

Not a single car on Wellington's State Highway 1 in New Zealand after the country closed for a month

Not a single car on Wellington’s State Highway 1 in New Zealand after the country closed for a month

“Modeling will help inform government decisions about when, how much, and for how long the country can ease the closure and other measures,” the New Zealand Department of Health report said.

“It is critical to understand that each of the models presents some potential future scenarios; there are no predictions. “

After cracking the numbers based on the infection rate, public health experts in New Zealand concluded that the most likely ‘plan for’ scenario was 12,600 to 33,600 deaths.

While it is clear that the Australian government also has model projections informing their own decision-making, they have chosen to keep the numbers secret.

“Modeling efforts need to be shared,” Professor Raina MacIntyre, head of the University of New South Wales Biosecurity Program at Kirby Institute, told Daily Mail Australia.

Most other countries where models are made to inform response have released models, including the UK, New Zealand and the US.

“In the UK, we saw the dramatic impact modeling had on debunking the false theory of herd immunity.”

Hesitant to release the numbers, Mr. Morrison said there are “no guarantees” when it comes to accurate numbers on COVID-19.

“This virus writes its own rules,” he said.

But according to the president of the Australian Medical Association New South Wales Kean-Seng Limeven if the modeling is not ‘perfect’, the government must still release it for the sake of transparency.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (above) says there are no guarantees for COVID-19 modeling: “The virus makes its own rule.”

Faced with a forecast of 33,600 deaths in New Zealand due to the corona virus, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ordered a month-long shutdown

Faced with a forecast of 33,600 deaths in New Zealand due to the corona virus, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ordered a month-long shutdown

Faced with a forecast of 33,600 deaths in New Zealand due to the corona virus, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ordered a month-long shutdown

“It is important that we can all maintain confidence in the system,” said Dr. Lim.

“As a community, [we need] to see the data used for modeling and to have an informed conversation. ‘

Professor MacIntyre believes that disclosing the data will help the community understand the seriousness of the situation.

“The goal of modeling is to inform disease control strategies and involve and involve people with the necessary measures to control COVID-19,” she explained.

“The modeling is very important to inform the community and to cooperate in measures to combat public health.”

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