NCAA Tournament Sleeper Picks: Three Games With Intriguing Betting Odds

The ever-popular 12 out of 5 shock pick could be this one between Drake and Miami. This Friday’s game in Albany will be one of the most closely watched games of the first round, especially since there’s a narrative that Miami isn’t a good road team, but the offense has been okay outside of Coral Gables.

Drake is a great story and a quality team, but the Missouri Valley Conference was a really mediocre league this season. The Bulldogs haven’t seen an offense as good as Miami’s, as the Hurricanes rank 21st in 2P% and 41st in 3P% this season. Drake did a good job keeping MVC teams out, but Miami is a much quicker, quicker, more efficient team than the Bulldogs’ conference brethren.

That being said, Miami was a shaky defensive team this season. The Hurricanes are ranked 256th in defense 2P% and just slightly above the national average in defense 3P%. Drake is a team that performed very well on mid-range jumpers, which is usually a hallmark of MVC teams. That was the weakest area defensively for the Hurricanes.

Miami speeds up games a bit and I think Drake could get caught up in that pace. The Bulldogs defense faces a tough test here, but Miami’s defense will also give up its share of points.

🏀 Selection: more than 147.5