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Welcome back to the most accurate power rankings on the Internet, where in this biweekly installment we’ll rank the eight NBA Cup quarterfinalist teams in an order so perfect it can’t be questioned.
Behind this list are the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics. In their place are the emerging New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks, the upstart Atlanta Hawks and the devastated Orlando Magic, perhaps the only teams capable of preventing Cleveland and Boston from meeting in the Eastern Conference finals.
If the East contingent doesn’t inspire our hopes that the NBA Cup’s single-elimination phase can salvage a confusing start to the tournament, let’s take a look at the West, where the conference’s top four teams may have advanced to the quarterfinals. final (although the Memphis Grizzlies will not be able to make their statement).
How much deeper is the West than the East? Let these power rankings be our guide.
8. Magical Orlando
The Magic might have been the East’s best bet in the NBA Cup if they had done it. any Franz Wagner or Paolo Banchero. They are outscoring their opponents by 9.6 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Wagner is on the court without Banchero, and they are outscoring their opponents by 5.6 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Banchero is on the floor without Wagner. by Cleaning the glass.
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And Orlando could have challenged the West winner if he were fully healthy. The Magic are rich in the type of talent that teams accumulate when they are in and around the draft lottery year after year, and they have the two players they need to lead them. Both Wagner and Banchero have shown All-NBA skills in stints leading a rising contender. It’s about taking advantage of it now.
But they both tore their right obliques, and Orlando has performed like an 18-win team without the partner. The team we see in this tournament (hopefully) won’t be the one Orlando unleashes in April.
7. Atlanta Falcons
The Hawks are still the Hawks, capable of playing as badly as they do well. They still have Trae Young and all the strengths and weaknesses that come with employing him at the top of the roster. And they are still fighting to avoid their annual entry into the play-in tournament.
Only now Atlanta’s inconsistency is an encouraging sign. They rely heavily on Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, all under 24 years old. Growing pains are part of his development, but there are few teams (almost none) that wouldn’t trade wings with the Hawks, and Dominique Wilkins was around the last time anyone could have claimed that.
It was good enough to get them here as winners of a group that included both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. This single-elimination tournament will be good practice for getting back into the playoffs, because for the first time in a long time there is hope in Atlanta.
6. Milwaukee Dollars
Remember when we took a deep dive into 3-point specialists and encouraged Milwaukee to play AJ Green more often? Doc Rivers listened and Green rewards him (48.2% with 8.7 3PA per 36 minutes). The Bucks are 11-5 when Green plays more than 15 minutes and 1-6 when he plays less.
Green’s increased role has coincided with Milwaukee’s recovery to 10-3 after a 2-8 start. The Bucks have risen above .500 and are in position to guarantee a playoff berth. His net rating is above zero (0.9) and Khris Middleton made his season debut just in time for this tournament.
All signs point to a team that is primed to make a statement in the NBA Cup. Except remember when we dug into the strength of the schedule and discovered that Milwaukee hadn’t played anyone. The Bucks are 2-8 against teams with winning records and 4-7 on the road, the combination of which makes them championship contenders. A participation in this tournament could change our minds.
5. New York Knicks
Tom Thibodeau constantly reminds us that his Knicks can’t compete for a championship if their defense doesn’t improve, even if they have won 10 of 13 games. In that span, his 123.1 points per 100 possessions lead the league, but his defensive rating remains below average.
The porous defense is a feature, not a bug, as the Knicks employ Karl-Anthony Towns as their starting center, and they don’t have an elite rim-protecting reserve to mask their deficit. Towns has been an offensive juggernaut and New York has done the same, but deep down we have to wonder if the Knicks can make stops when they need to. And they will need it.
Can you win the NBA Cup with a poor defense? And if he can’t, what should New York’s front office think about its playoff chances? This tournament could be the impetus for another call-up to Portland, where the Blazers’ lottery-bound frontcourt is loaded with capable bigs.
4. Houston Rockets
The Rockets would have hoped that Jalen Green, their highly recruited wing, had already begun to realize his All-Star potential. Maybe then they could have rewarded him with a max contract. Instead, they signed him to a three-year, $106 million extension, and his production earlier this season (an inefficient 19.5 points per game) has confirmed the team’s reluctance.
Houston, meanwhile, has established itself as a fringe contender this season, owners of the NBA’s second-highest-rated defense. And the Rockets are 11.9 points per 100 possessions better when Green is off the court. If only they had a more reliable scorer to help their mediocre offense.
It’s no surprise that Green is the subject of trade rumors as Houston searches for its next superstar. And it may seem silly to use the NBA Cup quarterfinals as a test case to determine whether or not to pull the trigger on a deal. But if the Rockets find that green is detrimental to their success in this tournament, why should they think anything would change when it comes to the playoffs?
3. Warriors of the Golden State
There has been a lot of discussion about Steve Kerr’s 12-man rotation. This approach has never produced championship results. It was surprisingly effective to start the season as everyone was fresh for their minutes, which isn’t such a bad idea when your best players are in their 30s, but there have been some signs of slippage in recent weeks for all the reasons. we had thought.
“It’s very difficult, there’s no two ways around it,” Curry said of his coach’s tactics. “The only thing I’ll say is that it’s hard for anyone trying to get into a rhythm and knowing what they’re going to ask you to do.”
It will be fascinating to see if Kerr narrows down his rotation for the NBA Cup quarterfinals, as if he were preparing for the playoffs, because even the Warriors admit they won’t make it that far in the postseason. (Their rotation was reduced to 10 in their most recent NBA Cup game against the Denver Nuggets.) And if Kerr is successful with a reduced rotation, will the front office use that as its opportunity to trade multiple assets for a single, better one (i.e., Zach LaVine)?
2. Dallas Mavericks
If you’re wondering if heliocentrism can produce an NBA champion, consider this: No one has ever won a championship with a usage rate higher than 34.7%. Only Michael Jordan has won rings with a wear rate greater than 32.5% – the standard with which Giannis Antetokounmpo captured his Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2021. And why am I telling you this?
Well, Luka Dončić’s usage rate, which led the league in three of the last four seasons when he used an average of 36.7% of his team’s possessions, has fallen this season to 32.8%. Since Nov. 16, when Dallas began its current streak of 11 wins in 12 games, his usage rate has dropped to 29.5% and he hasn’t even played in five of those games. Is he loosening his grip on the offense?
And will he toughen it up when the stakes increase in the NBA Cup quarterfinals? Will he return to the ball-dominant brand he played in the NBA Finals, when he (again) used 36.7% of the Mavericks’ possessions and lost in five games? This tournament will provide an early window to see if Jason Kidd wants to play differently when they return to the playoffs.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Since the 2016-17 season, when teams first attempted an average of 25 3-pointers per game, no team has posted a defensive rating below 100. Except OKC allows fewer than 100 points per 100 possessions every time Chet Holmgren o Isaiah Hartenstein is on the ground.
The Thunder have navigated games without any of their rim protectors, outscoring opponents by eight points per 100 possessions in their absence, thanks to a rabid small-ball team. Imagine how terrifying your defense will be when Mark Daigneault can stagger his big men for a full 48 minutes and occasionally line up both of them at once. They could be the best defense of this era.
They will have to settle with only Hartenstein for the rest of the NBA Cup while Holmgren recovers from a broken pelvis. And if they can now navigate this Western Conference field in a single-elimination tournament, what hope do those teams have of eliminating them from a seven-game series if Oklahoma City’s big two are anchoring their defense in April?