UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev believes he has a pretty good idea of what his fight with Dustin Poirier at UFC 302 will look like. In fact, he can see it all laid out before him, from the opening moments to the end, and he doesn’t it takes a long time.
“We’ll start and I’ll try to take him down,” Makhachev told Yahoo Sports. “He will try to put me in a guillotine (strangulation). I will defend the guillotine. I’ll give it a couple of hits. He will turn his back on you. “Then I will finish.”
See? Simple, really. The malicious smile on Makhachev’s face as he laid out this vision of the future suggested that, at least to some extent, he was having a little fun with the prediction. At the same time, he also showed that he has been paying attention.
At this point, there are some things about Poirier that are pretty well established. One is that he loves to jump through that guillotine, even if he’s never won a professional fight that way. (“I think in training he should finish a lot of guys this way,” Makhachev said. “If he didn’t, I think he would stop.”) Another is that, if you don’t count the interim title won by Poirier, he is 0-2 in UFC lightweight championship fights.
The third, and perhaps most important for Makhachev, is that wherever Poirier goes, he brings a lot of eyes with him. That’s important when you’re a UFC champion, since those are usually the only fighters who get a cut of the pay-per-view money.
“Maybe I’ll make good money with Dustin,” Makhachev. “More than with Arman (Tsarukyan), I think.”
As Makhachev sees it, these are the only two names he has left in the 155-pound division. Poirier would be good for the payday and the value of the name on his resume, he said. Tsarukyan has already been defeated once, but will likely have to face him again after Tsarukyan’s victory in a main contender fight at UFC 300. After that? Then it will be his turn to move up a division and fight for the welterweight title, he said.
However, this is where things get a little complicated for Makhachev. He is approaching two years as the undisputed UFC lightweight champion. As of now, he has defended that belt against zero real lightweights.
It’s not really his fault, of course. His first title defense was against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, who had earned the right to move up and fight for a second title. Makhachev escaped with a narrow decision victory in that case, and was then scheduled for a rematch with former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira last fall. When Oliveira withdrew, Volkanovski intervened without warning.
Makhachev made quick work of him this time, but seven months later he is still waiting for his first opportunity to demonstrate his dominance over the division with a title defense against one of his own.
What’s interesting is that, despite this curious history with title defenses, Makhachev is still largely considered a dominant champion. He enters this fight with Poirier as 5-1 favorite at BetMGM. You could shuffle the field of contenders, which is almost always crowded in this division, and you still probably wouldn’t find anyone who was even remotely a favorite to beat him.
Some of that is likely due to the 13 consecutive wins in the UFC that led him to this point. It’s at least partly a virtue of his association with Khabib Nurmagomedov, his longtime friend, mentor and training partner, who retired undefeated and effectively cleared the way for Makhachev.
It’s probably also because when you watch him fight, what you see is a man who seems to have very few weaknesses. He has Nurmagomedov’s smothering grappling and ground attack, but he also has a more aggressive striking game. In fact, he could be more aggressive overall, not to mention more ambitious in his current title hopes.
This, Makhachev said, is why he is reluctant to consider suggestions that include fighters like Max Holloway, whose name came up in the lightweight title conversation after winning the BMF ceremonial title at UFC 300.
“I have some work in this division,” Makhachev said. “I don’t want to give any opportunity to people from the other division. I already gave Volkanovski two chances. Now I need my chance to get a second belt. In my division I think, honestly, I have Dustin and then I have Arman and then I’m done. We don’t have a new opponent who deserves a title fight. Then I will be ready to fight the 170 (pound) champion.”
Of course, the MMA gods have a way of punishing those who dream too big or too soon with multiple titles in multiple weight classes. Makhachev has to get past Poirier first, and that is by no means an easy fight for anyone in the division.
Still, one thing Makhachev does not lack is confidence. Poirier might have veteran knowledge and few tricks up his sleeve, the champion admitted, but it’s not a matchup he seems to worry much about.
“Maybe one day, I hope (Poirier) will finish his guillotine on someone,” Makhachev said, that sly smile appearing again. “But it won’t be me.”