Motorists will stop buying new petrol and diesel cars years before the government introduces the 2030 ban, says an environmental lobby group.
group of experts New AutoMotive expects drivers to stop buying combustion engine vehicles in 2028/29, one to two years before the ban comes into force.
This is based on their own calculations after analysis of vehicle registration data.
However, some industry insiders say the sales figures are currently skewed by high fleet demand fueled by favorable subsidies for company car drivers, while the appetite of private car buyers is of great concern. .
Will consumers phase out the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars before the government does in 2030? A group of environmental experts has predicted that they will do so based on the latest vehicle registration data.
the green group The Electric Car Count (ECC) report analyzes current records and trends to forecast how demand for electric vehicles is processing.
It says the latest data shows that gasoline car registrations lost 8 percentage points in July, as electric car sales grew 90 percent.
New AutoMotive says this continues with a “long-term decline in the popularity of gasoline since 2019,” when they accounted for 65 percent of all new cars.
And with demand for diesel cars ‘plunging’ from its peak of 50 per cent of the market in 2016, the think tank predicts that ‘consumers will effectively end the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2028/29’.
Ben Nelmes, executive director of the nonprofit, says the lack of available electric vehicles is the only thing keeping drivers from buying battery-powered cars in large numbers right now.
‘The debate over the government’s 2030 target is starting to look academic. Consumers have virtually stopped selling diesel cars and are increasingly avoiding gasoline cars,” he said.
“Surprisingly, despite a recovery in the auto market, gasoline car sales continue to fall over the long term and are still around half their pre-pandemic peak.
“Consumers are voting with their wallets and showing that they prefer to go electric.”
However, industry insiders have questioned this optimistic EV production, saying that today’s registration numbers are not truly representative of consumer appetite for electric cars.
The founder of electric vehicle website Electrifying.com, Ginny Buckley, said that while the latest registration figures suggest electric car sales are buoyant, it can be seen that most EV registrations are for fleets and companies, which are strongly incentivized.
“This continues to show that a lack of financial incentives and a lack of confidence in our public charging infrastructure are doing little to help private buyers on their electric journey,” Buckley added.
Nearly one in six new cars registered in July were electric vehicles, while only 7.2% of all sales were diesel. With gasoline registrations also on the decline, New AutoMotive says consumers will stop buying new combustion-engined cars before the 2030 sales ban.
John Veichmanis, CEO of vehicle sales platform carwow, says that while the EV sales numbers may seem encouraging, they are not due to private registrations.
‘This [rise in EV registrations] is being driven predominantly by fleet sales, up 61.9% yoy, and company registrations, up 28.7%.’
He notes that private EV registrations saw growth of just 0.3 per cent last month, though he believes there is greater appetite from the public than this number suggests, although there are a number of hurdles that make them hesitant to commit to plug-in cars.
“Our data shows that nearly two in five (38 percent) of carwow customers would consider an EV as their next car,” he continued.
“But while people have an appetite for electricity, we know that the lack of infrastructure continues to put many off.
“A reliable charging network and lower-priced cars must be accompanied by a widespread expansion of public charging points if more private buyers are to be persuaded to go electric in the coming years.”
Analysis of the latest registration data shows that Tesla tops the chart of manufacturers with the most EVs registered in July.
In fact, more than one in six (17 percent) of all electric car sales are its Model Y, which continues to dominate the market in 2023.
However, MG also saw significant growth this year, more than doubling its sales in the first seven months of 2023. One in ten new electric cars in 2023 has been an MG, due to the popularity of its latest MG4.
But while there has been growth in electric vehicle registrations, battery-powered pickup trucks don’t share the same level of market share.
Electric vans accounted for just 6 per cent of the UK van market in July, although the number of registered electric vans increased by 95 per cent.
Sales of electric motorcycles fell 44 percent after having struggled to make sales progress since the reduction of the subsidy for plug-in motorcycles in 2021.
A new record number of UK registered HGVs was seen in July, with 46 vehicles driving on UK roads. To continue at this pace, the industry urgently needs a specific policy framework, the New AutoMotive ECC found.
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