& # 39; The risks & # 39; s are matched & # 39 ;: how more than half a million Australians can lose their jobs if the Chinese economy makes a & # 39; hard landing & # 39; in the midst of a trade war with the US
- Trade war and possible American recession, Chinese growth could fall further
- If 500,000 Aussies lost their jobs, employment would rise from 5.2% to 9.3%
- Next week new research will be presented to Rio Tinto, ANU and Star Casino
More than half a million Australians can lose their jobs and the country could end up in a recession if China made a & # 39; hard landing & # 39; suffers in the midst of his trade war with the US.
The ongoing trade war, a possible recession in the US and a precarious political situation in Hong Kong could bring Chinese growth from 6.5 percent to three percent, which would threaten 550,000 Australian jobs, new research suggests.
If that number of jobs were lost in Australia, unemployment would rise from 5.2 percent to 9.3 percent.
The research will be presented Tuesday at Rio Tinto, the Australian National University and Star Casino – all of which are exposed to the Chinese market – and will be told that the prospect of a & # 39; hard landing & # 39; more likely if the three most important factors are intensified at the same time.
& # 39; Internal and external risks & # 39; s already aligned, with the trade war slowing Chinese economic growth and exerting pressure on the credit portfolios of smaller Chinese banks & # 39 ;, said PricewaterhouseCoopers chief economist Jeremy Thorpe, who will present the research, The age.
The trade war and an American recession, together with a precarious political situation in Hong Kong, can bring Chinese growth from 6.5 percent to three percent
The US trade representative's office confirmed Donald Trump's plans to add an additional 5 percent rate to a $ AU445 billion list of Chinese imports from September 1 and December 15.
USTR said they would impose a 15 percent rate on some of the target goods from September 1, while the remainder, including cell phones and laptops, would receive a 15 percent rate on December 15.
The Trump administration had previously drawn up plans to set a rate of 10 percent on these imports.
President Trump announced the rate increase on Twitter last Friday in response to Chinese retaliation rights of US $ 75 billion worth of US goods, including crude oil.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor, Philip Lowe, warned last year that the financial sector and large debt could derail the Chinese economy.
If 500,000 Aussies lost their jobs, employment would rise from 5.2 percent to 9.3 percent
According to Deloitte models, a hard landing would be seven percent of Australia's national income, which amounts to $ 140 billion if demand falls internationally.
The Asian Development Bank estimates that a drop of 1 percentage point in China's growth could adversely affect Australia's growth, possibly reducing it by around 0.05 percent.
Thorpe said that a reduced demand for natural resources could lead to lower raw material prices.
But he said that Chinese students who choose to study at cheaper Australian universities than the US and Great Britain can benefit from uni
Thorpe said that Australian universities can take advantage of Chinese students who want to study in Australia for more expensive higher education in the US and Great Britain.
& # 39; As long as the [Chinese] government does not want to restrain its students studying abroad, we can see that Australia is attracting a new cohort of price-sensitive Chinese students who are switching from more expensive markets or coming to Australia as the cost of education fall, & # 39; he said.
Earlier this month, the Australian dollar fell below 67 US cents for the first time in a decade, after the United States imposed new import tariffs on China, Australia's largest trading partner.
Concerns about global growth have also affected stock markets, with the Australian Securities Exchange losing $ 33 billion this week in just 15 minutes.
This happened on Monday morning, after President Trump tweeted that American companies were ordered to immediately search for an alternative to China & # 39 ;.
A fall in Chinese manufacturing activity as a result of the trade war could cause the emerging Asian superpower to buy less Australian iron ore used to make steel.
According to Deloitte modeling, a hard landing would be seven percent of Australia's national income, which amounts to $ 140 billion if demand declines internationally
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