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Modi and the BJP score a spectacular victory in Gujarat

The lotus has blossomed again in Gujarat. “Son of the Bottom” Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled through a hotly contested poll to win the photo finish, winning the BJP for the sixth consecutive time in the state.

Gujarat city centers demonstrated their love for the former Minister of State Modi and gave him a victory.

Despite past fears of traders allegedly outraged by GST and demonetization, and anti-incumbency after 22 years of regulatory disruption of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) apple car in the state, Modi led his party to a nail-biting victory.

PM's final round blitz helps BJP win a hotly contested sixth term in Gujarat

PM’s final round blitz helps BJP win a hotly contested sixth term in Gujarat

A map of election results in Gujarat - showing the BJP (orange) and Congress (blue)

A map of election results in Gujarat - showing the BJP (orange) and Congress (blue)

A map of election results in Gujarat – showing the BJP (orange) and Congress (blue)

A poorly managed showdown with his loyal voter bank, the influential Patidars, did not make it easy. Himachal Pradesh was more of a cakewalk to the saffron party, which took the hill state from Congress by a two-thirds majority.

While the results trickled in on Monday afternoon with 99 seats for the BJP in Gujarat, experts suspected that the particular factor that saved the party from losing these elections was the worship Modi enjoyed as prime minister.

The BJP returned to power in the 14th Gujarat Assembly on the back of Modi’s high and aggressive campaign.

It became clear that the local BJP leadership, consisting of Prime Minister Vijay Rupani, State BJP President Jitu Vaghani and Deputy Prime Minister Nitin Patel, was not enjoying enough goodwill despite being in power and on the wave of development and power of a BJP was driving. government in the center.

Back to the throne

In one of the most urbanized states in the country, about 55 of the 182 Assembly seats are considered urban. These are the seats in eight municipal municipalities.

But it’s the four major urban conglomerates, Ahmedabad, Rajkot, Surat and Vadodara, that add up to 35 seats that emerged as the crucial factor between victory and decimation for the BJP. At 31 of these 35 seats, the party maintained its dominance.

Amit Shah (bottom), president of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gesturing while celebrating with party supporters after initial poll results at New Delhi party headquarters on Monday

Amit Shah (below), president of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gesturing while celebrating with party supporters after initial poll results at New Delhi party headquarters on Monday

Amit Shah (below), president of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gesturing while celebrating with party supporters after initial poll results at New Delhi party headquarters on Monday

In Ahmedabad City, the BJP won from 12 of the 16 assembly segments. Of the four seats it lost, two are Muslim-dominated traditional convention citizens – Jamalpur-Khadia and Dariapur.

The other is Danilimda, a reserved category seat for Scheduled Closets, dominated by Dalit voters – also considered congressional loyalists. It is the fourth seat of Bapunagar that was upset. It is a Patidar-dominated seat, which witnessed significant violence during the community clashes with the police in August 2015.

This seat had previously been occupied by BJP’s Jagrupsinh Rajput, but was won by the Himmatsinh Patel of Congress in these elections. In Surat City, the BJP registered a confident 10-seat sweep.

This is a surprise because it was in Surat that Patidar leader of the movement, Hardik Patel, showed the maximum strength and support, held a massive demonstration and would also have tucked some financiers among affluent businessmen.

Surat’s textile industry had rebelled against the GST regime and lakhs had taken to the streets to protest.

Congress chief Rahul Gandhi spent a special day in Surat to “understand the problems of diamond cutters, textile traders and powerloom workers.”

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters burn fireworks while celebrating first poll results outside party headquarters

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters burn fireworks while celebrating first poll results outside party headquarters

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters burn fireworks while celebrating first poll results outside party headquarters

However, when it came to the vote, it’s clear that Surat’s homeboy Modi didn’t want to disappoint and voted in large numbers for the traditional favorite, BJP.

Saurashtra region, on the other hand, experienced a wave of congress, but four urban seats of Rajkot City stand out. Here, Congress even lost its only seat, Rajkot East, to the BJP this time.

The four Rajkot City seats have also been Patidar dominated, mostly mid-range and upper-mid-range, another part of the loyal BJP Vote sofa that isn’t put off by cabinet combinations.

Supporters of the BJP rejoice when the first results seep through

Supporters of the BJP rejoice when the first results seep through

Supporters of the BJP rejoice when the first results seep through

Rajkot is also the seat where the ideology of Jan Sangh germinated and later spread all over Gujarat. Modi fought from here in 2001 when he returned to Gujarat after his break from the state. This city was also expected to falter under the negative impact of the GST implementation.

In these elections, five of the seven seats of Vadodara City were won by the BJP. In 2012, all seven were won by the saffron party. While the urban development of the city has been important, the other notable feature here lately has been polarization along the common lines.

Since 2002, it is mainly Vadodara that has seen common skirmishes from time to time. Besides, it also became a VIP constituency after PM Modi fought in the LS polls from here,

Reality check for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh

The BJP won the closely contested Gujarat polls by a simple majority, but election results have raised the alarm for the incumbent BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to go to the polls next year.

Although the party is facing strong anti-incumbency in all three states, the Prime Ministers (CM) have also faced major challenges during their current term.

Unlike Gujarat, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah literally took control of the elections, BJP has their CMS – Shivraj Singh Chauhan in MP, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh at the helm.

Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan

Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan

Chattisgarh CM Raman Singh

Chattisgarh CM Raman Singh

Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan and Chattisgarh CM Raman Singh face challenges in their states

Recent protests by farmers in MP, conflict within BJP in Rajasthan and the threat of Maoist rebels in Chhattisgarh are of major concern to the BJP.

The three states are going to vote in December 2018, and the BJP has already entered election mode, as these elections will essentially set the tone for the 2019 general election.

The BJP has been in power in MP and Chhattisgarh since 2003, while Rajasthan won from Congress in 2013.

However, party sources said that the electoral trend in Rajasthan in recent years of not voting a party for consecutive terms has been worrying about the high command.

A senior BJP leader said PM Modi will be the party’s trump card in these elections, but the party will also rely on the popularity of its CMs.

The top leadership of BJP believes that their welfare schemes, the prime minister’s popularity and weak opposition will help them achieve a new victory.

A BJP leader involved in poll management in Gujarat said, “BJP has many lessons to learn from the results of Gujarat. Leadership in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will need to strengthen the structure of the party’s booth in order to increase its voice share. While BJP has mainly won the urban pockets; attention should shift to national straps with government welfare schemes. ‘

He added that a mechanism should be devised to counter polarization of votes in the fields of caste and religion.

BJP faced strong opposition in Gujarat from caste leaders such as Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, who joined Congress during the polls. However, the BJP managed to save its voice share by creating a gap in the Patel community.

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