Table of Contents
2024 Season: Eliminated on September 27, 4th in AL Central
Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Minnesota Twins, the questions the team must address this winter, and the initial outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for White Sox, A’s, Cubs and more?
Things that went well
The Twins stayed in the playoff race until the final weekend of the season thanks to a team effort. This was a club that posted a winning record even though no position player posted an .800 OPS in at least 110 games and no pitcher posted an ERA below 3.50 in more than 100 innings. Rather, there were several Twins who made useful contributions.
No one on the Twins roster will finish the season with more than 25 home runs, 75 runs batted in or 20 stolen bases, but Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been the main offensive contributors and each should finish with an OPS in the middle. superior. 800 or .900 low. Four more Twins (José Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana) will finish with an OPS in the mid-.700s while playing in over 110 games.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff was led by Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, who posted a sub-4.20 ERA in at least 130 innings. Additionally, Griffin Jax emerged as the team’s most reliable reliever, producing impressive ratios while ranking second on the club in saves and leading the team in appearances and holds.
Things that went wrong
Minnesota stayed in the playoff race primarily because its disappointments were all relatively minor. Royce Lewis continued a pattern of struggling to stay healthy, as he was able to play in about half of the team’s games. The 25-year-old was a solid offensive player, but not as effective as he was in 58 games the year before (.921 OPS). Edouard Julien was a major disappointment. After producing an .839 OPS in 109 games in 2023, Julien struggled offensively to the point that he spent approximately two months of the summer in the minors.
Minnesota is far from the only team that struggled to find a fifth starter, but that was certainly an area of disappointment this year. Louie Varland and Chris Paddack endured disappointing seasons after opening 2024 in the rotation. Youngsters David Festa and Zebby Matthews tried their best to make an impact late in the season, but didn’t have much success. The lack of depth in the rotation was especially notable when the team was without Ryan down the stretch.
However, overall everything was going pretty well in Minnesota until the final weeks of the season. On September 5, the Twins were sitting at 74-62 with a 95.4% chance of qualifying for the postseasonaccording to FanGraphs. The Twins were then swept in a pivotal series with the Royals, which began a stretch in which Minnesota went 6-14 from September 6-27. The Twins won only one of six series during that span and fell to 82-14. 78 with their loss to the Orioles on September 27, which eliminated them from the postseason. During that dismal stretch, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers and Julien posted an OPS below .500, and Lopez, Festa and Woods Richardson each posted an ERA above 4.50 while making at least three starts.
Low season plans
Most of the Twins’ roster remains under team control through 2025 and beyond, but the infield might be the least established part of the team. Jeffers is locked in behind the plate, Correa will play shortstop and Lewis can fill in at the hot corner. Julien and former top prospect Brooks Lee are options to play second base, and Lee could also be a good utility man. First base is the only open position, with Santana heading to free agency at age 38. Alex Kirilloff is a possible replacement, but he has dealt with injuries throughout his career and posted a modest .653 OPS in 57 games this year.
The outfield is anchored by Buxton in center and has excellent options against right-handed pitchers like Wallner and Larnach. Manuel Margot is a good fit as a right-handed hitter who can start against lefties, but he’s unlikely to exercise his $12 million option for 2025. The team will likely lose Max Kepler in free agency, but he’s not a great fit as another left-handed hitter alongside to Wallner and Larnach. There are also elite outfield prospects on the way (more on that later).
The rotation is in good shape, as the Big Four of Lopez, Ober, Ryan and Woods Richardson are set to return. Festa, Matthews and Varland can compete for the last spot. The team’s key relievers (Jax, Jhoan Durán, Cole Sands and Jorge Alcalá) will also return. The top lefty on the relief corps, Caleb Thielbar, is headed to free agency and will need to be replaced.
Minnesota could use a superstar in the middle of its lineup, but those players are expensive and risky on the free agent market. For example, Pete Alonso would be an eye-catching signing at first base, but he might not fit into a plan for stable, sustainable success. Still, the Twins added Correa to a massive $200 million free agency contract two years ago and might be willing to make another bold move.
Perspectives on the horizon
Minnesota’s farm system enjoyed a big jump this season and second place in baseball for August, according to MLB Pipeline.
Emmanuel Rodríguez could be the member of the group that best combines elite talent and MLB preparation. The 21-year-old rose through four minor league levels this year, finishing the season in Triple-A and showing incredible plate discipline along the way. He profiles as a true five-tool player who could join the Twins outfield in early 2025.
The organization has two more elite position player prospects who could reach the majors in late 2025. Walker Jenkins, the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, is 19 years old and has already reached Double-A. He is considered one of baseball’s top five prospects by some publications and will eventually patrol Minnesota’s outfield alongside Rodriguez. Luke Keaschall is another Minnesota prospect who has an exciting combination of power, speed and on-base skills. He primarily played second base in college, but also gained experience at first base and center in the minors.
The ceilings aren’t as high for the Twins’ pitching prospects, but there are two starters in the minors who should contribute next season. Andrew Morris enjoyed a fantastic 2024 (2.37 ERA, 133:32 K:BB ratio) during which he rose to Triple-A. He should debut with the Twins in early 2025. Marco Raya has a similarly high ceiling, but he was less consistent this year and will likely spend the first half of 2025 working on his control in the minors.
Subscribe to Baseball-B-Cast Rod in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube either wherever you listen.
Goals for 2025
The Twins are certainly not a dynasty, but they had a solid run of success, with four postseason appearances in the last eight seasons. Still, the failure of this year’s team to notch key wins in September or heading back to October, particularly after being well positioned to do so, will be a talking point throughout the offseason.
The organization could make minimal changes this winter and still have a good shot at winning the AL Central in 2025. But unless they make at least one notable move, the Twins will likely continue to lag behind the AL powers. . The front office will have to decide if being good is enough, rather than actually trying to get to the World Series.
2024 MLB Playoff Tracker: Follow as postseason picture comes into focus
fantasy approach
Fantasy managers will initially target the Twins’ starting pitchers on draft day. Ryan, Ober and Lopez will be coveted as No. 2 starters in mixed leagues, and Ryan and Lopez will have the potential to be viewed by some coaches as fantasy aces. Assuming he remains in the closer role, Durán will also be a valuable player in the 2025 drafts.
Minnesota’s best hitters figure to be mid-round picks, including Correa, Wallner and Buxton. Lewis is the only Twins position player who could jump into the early rounds, as managers dream of his potential to stay healthy and put up game-changing numbers over a full season.
