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Here are the playoff scenarios for the Mets during the final games of the regular season, with the postseason scheduled to begin in a few days…
The Mets get a wild card spot if…
The Mets (87-72) are tied with the Diamondbacks (88-73) for the final wild card spot, and are 1.0 game behind the Braves (88-71) for the second wild card spot.
However, because the Mets won the season series over the D-backs, they own the tiebreaker and will finish ahead of them if the two teams finish the season tied.
And even after losing on Friday and Saturday, the Mets still control their own destiny.
These are the scenarios for Sunday:
If the Mets win AND the Diamondbacks lose, the Mets are in
If the Braves win OR the Diamondbacks lose, the Braves are in
If the Diamondbacks win and the Mets AND the Braves lose, the D-backs are in
In a scenario where the Mets are swept by the Brewers, the Mets could still clinch a spot by sweeping Monday’s doubleheader, which would give New York the tiebreaker over Atlanta by virtue of winning the season series .
This is where it gets complicated…
In a world where the Mets clinch a playoff spot before games against the Braves are played on Monday, and those games are only necessary for seeding, they may not be played.
But for that to happen, the D-backs would have to be eliminated on Sunday.
If the Mets enter Monday tied only with Arizona
In a world where the Mets and D-backs win or lose on Sunday, the two teams will be tied.
But because the Mets have the tiebreaker over Arizona, they would have to win just one game of Monday’s doubleheader to clinch a wild card spot.
If the Mets enter Monday tied with Atlanta and Arizona
If the Mets and D-backs win on Sunday and the Braves lose, New York and Atlanta will enter play on Monday with identical 88-72 records, while the D-backs would be 89-73.
In this scenario, the Mets would need just one win to clinch a spot, as they have the tiebreaker over Arizona and a win would guarantee they would finish no worse than 89-73.
If the Mets enter Monday tied only with Atlanta
If the Mets win on Sunday and both the D-backs and Braves lose, the Mets and Braves will both be in the playoffs and the D-backs will be eliminated before Monday’s games are played.
That’s because in that scenario, the Mets (88-72) couldn’t be beaten by the D-backs (88-74) because New York owns the tiebreaker. Meanwhile, the Braves (88-72) couldn’t be beaten by the D-backs because they also own the tiebreaker over Arizona.
If the above is true, Monday’s games would be necessary only for seeding. Specifically, they would determine who gets the No. 5 seed and who gets the No. 6 seed. In that scenario, it will be up to the Commissioner to determine whether to play or not.
The remaining schedules
The Mets and Braves have three games left, while the Diamondbacks only have one game left.
Here’s how it plays out:
Mets: 1 at Brewers (Sunday), 2 at Braves (Monday)
Braves: 1 vs. Royals (Sunday), 2 vs. Mets (Monday)
D-backs: 1 vs. Padres (Sunday)
