Determining the pecking order at the top of Formula 1 heading into the summer break is now a difficult exercise.
Lewis Hamilton was officially declared the winner of Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix after teammate George Russell was disqualified in post-race inspection. Russell held off Hamilton admirably in the closing laps after using a seemingly perfect one-stop strategy. However, Russell’s car was found to be 1.5kg under the minimum weight after the race and he was subsequently relegated to last place.
It’s true that every fraction of a kilogram contributes to generating speed in a Formula 1 car. However, there is no doubt that Mercedes was the better team throughout Sunday’s race. After starting third, Hamilton overtook polesitter Charles Leclerc in the opening laps and was never overtaken under green flag conditions for the rest of the race.
Russell started sixth and inherited the lead because he had one fewer pit stop than the rest of the field. He maintained his advantage over Hamilton in the closing laps despite Hamilton being on much fresher tyres.
The one-two finish was set to be Mercedes’ first since the 2022 Brazilian Grand Prix. Instead, Hamilton’s win is the team’s third in the last four races.
Crucially, this is a “win” that was the easiest of the three. Yes, Max Verstappen won pole and had to start 11th because of an engine change. But Hamilton looked impeccable in clean air. His win at the British Grand Prix three weeks ago came on a track that went back and forth between wet and dry and Russell’s win in Austria came after Verstappen and Lando Norris collided while racing for the lead.
Mercedes remains a considerable distance behind Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari in fourth place in the constructors’ standings. Even without Russell’s disqualification, the team would be 61 points behind third-placed Ferrari.
But there’s no denying how good Mercedes has been since the team implemented the upgrades in Monaco. Hamilton has not finished lower than fourth in the last six races and has two wins and four podiums in that span.
The only team that can credibly claim to have been faster than Mercedes over the last six races is McLaren. Red Bull faces a dilemma over the summer break (more on that in a minute), while Ferrari is struggling to regain the form it showed earlier this season. The constructors’ title is very likely out of reach for the Silver Arrows. But don’t be in the least surprised if Hamilton and Russell each take more wins before the end of the season.
What is Red Bull doing with Sergio Pérez?
Sergio Pérez started second on Sunday and finished seventh after making a pit stop at the end of the race to score a bonus point for the fastest lap.
Perez failed to match Verstappen’s pace over the 44 laps at Spa and lost second place to Hamilton on the opening lap. After dropping to third, Perez was not a determining factor for the rest of the race as Verstappen dropped from 11th to fourth official position following Russell’s disqualification.
After the race, Perez said his result was “disappointing” and it seems entirely possible that it was also his last race for Red Bull. Perez has underperformed significantly over the past two seasons and currently sits seventh in the standings. He would be eighth – and last among drivers from the top four teams – had Russell scored the full 25 points on Sunday and not been disqualified.
Perez’s future at Red Bull has been the subject of much speculation since the start of the season and McLaren’s performance on Sunday will not change that. Oscar Piastri (second) and Lando Norris (fifth) both scored 28 points in Belgium, while Verstappen and Perez each added 19. Red Bull’s lead in the constructors’ standings is now down to 42 points over McLaren and Ferrari are just 21 points behind McLaren.
Verstappen still has a good lead in the drivers’ standings and will need a poor run of races to put his fourth consecutive title in doubt. However, the constructors’ title is just as important for Red Bull. And it is becoming increasingly clear that the team needs a strong second driver to keep everyone else at bay.
Who could that driver be? If the team wants to let Perez go, the options appear to be VCARB drivers Yuki Tsunoda, Daniel Ricciardo and VCARB reserve driver Liam Lawson. Ricciardo has already spent time at Red Bull and has been Verstappen’s teammate. He is the usual choice. Tsunoda and Lawson would be auditioning under immense pressure to prove they are worthy of a seat at one of F1’s top teams.
Another disappointing day for Alpine
Alpine sits eighth in the constructors’ standings heading into the summer break after Esteban Ocon was ninth in Belgium and Pierre Gasly dropped out of the points in 13th.
The team has scored just 11 points so far this season and is only ahead of Williams and Sauber, the only team not to have scored a point all season.
Alpine finished sixth a season ago and was almost 100 points clear of Williams in seventh. Instead of attacking fifth-placed Aston Martin, the team has been outpaced by both VCARB and Haas as it simply fails to get its cars under control.
A potential deal with Mercedes for an engine in the future is generating optimism, but the team is not expected to improve before the end of the season. And there needs to be some improvement. Alpine would love to have Carlos Sainz alongside Pierre Gasly in 2025, but proving to Sainz that it can field a competitive car in the short term is incredibly important.