Nobody expected this. Not the Americans who see Seoul as a crucial Asian ally, not the half-starving North Korea under its dictator, and certainly not the South Korean people themselves.
When President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law yesterday, many of the country’s 52 million people must have feared that an international emergency had broken out, perhaps an invasion or nuclear tests by their neighbor.
But when soldiers blocked the entrance to the parliament building and all democratic political activity was suspended, it became clear that this was an internal crisis on a seismic scale.
What happens next will only increase the impact.
Yoon, whose party had already suffered huge losses in this year’s parliamentary elections, has acted in a desperate bid to avoid being forced to resign. If it falls, it will leave a power vacuum. But holding on does not seem a realistic option after a half-hearted coup to stay in power.
Any scenario is potentially catastrophic for the United States, which has more than 24,000 troops stationed in the country.
Since the Korean War of the 1950s, this peninsula has been a crucial eastern foothold for the United States.
In Beijing, the Chinese Communist Party will decide how to react. It is unlikely that they will make any sudden moves.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un will try to take advantage of political unrest in South Korea over martial law by causing more chaos, writes Mark Almond
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law late Tuesday but has since lifted the legislation following the unrest.
People gesture as they gather in front of the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 4, 2024, after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.
But North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, infamously nicknamed “Little Rocket Man” by Donald Trump, is much less predictable. He will surely try to take advantage of the situation by causing more unrest.
Cyber warfare is its weapon of choice, but it could also try to intimidate its neighbors by firing a missile, a tactic it has used on Japan in the past. It could even order a border raid to demonstrate its military power.
While South Korea has the world’s lowest birth rate and an aging population, North Korea is a young nation. He has no shortage of recruits for his large army and earlier this year he was able to send 10,000 soldiers to help Russia in Ukraine.
If the North were to mount a full-scale invasion, the United States would have no choice but to declare war. However, that would put Washington in the impossible position of supporting Yoon, who now acts like a tyrant.
His bitterest political enemies could not have foreseen this when he was elected conservative leader on an anti-corruption platform in 2022. South Korea has been dogged for decades by financial shenanigans in the government, and Yoon touted himself as a leading activist in the struggle. against dirty dealings.
Instead, it has sunk into the mud. His first lady, Kim Keon Hee, has been accused of accepting bribes. Her opponents compare her to Marie Antoinette.
We still don’t know if Yoon will leave quickly or if the National Assembly, after lifting the martial law decree, will demand his head. As I write, the situation is uncertain.
What is certain is that this volatility in a major economy teetering on a nuclear tripwire means that the South Korean crisis will have repercussions around the world.
Soldiers try to enter the National Assembly building in Seoul on December 4, 2024, after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.
It comes as Kim Jong Un sent thousands of troops to Ukraine to help Russian soldiers amid the ongoing conflict.
The failure of the coup does not mean that after a bout of midnight madness, South Korea will return to normal.
That this can happen shows that deep corruption problems lurk behind the façade of K-Pop and Samsung Galaxies. Another crisis over who will take power in South Korea may be just beginning.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford.