What happens next could decide the fate of the entire world. After more than nine months of desperate fighting against Hamas, Israel may now be on the brink of total cataclysm.
Military action against Hezbollah, Iran’s largest and best-trained group, in neighboring Lebanon could spark a war on an entirely different scale — one that Israel is far from certain of winning.
This is a war that could easily involve Britain, not only by supplying Israel with arms and air support, but also by potentially drawing Israel into armed conflict with Hezbollah. Such a war would inevitably have a seismic effect on our domestic politics, already torn by pro-Palestinian protests.
The US presidential election, amid unprecedented chaos, will be thrown into turmoil if Iran openly declares its military support for Hezbollah. That is one step away from a war spanning the entire Middle East.
And in the most extreme nightmare scenario, if Israel determines that its very existence is threatened and deploys its nuclear arsenal, then a global war will almost certainly ensue, with Russia and Pakistan likely to be among the first to react.
Mass funeral held in Israel for those killed in rocket attack from Lebanon
The funeral was attended by thousands of people who came to share their grief at the tragic loss of life.
This may seem alarmist to anyone who has followed the Israel Defense Forces’ relentless campaign against Hamas following the October 7 massacre of 1,200 Israelis.
The assault on the Gaza Strip, which has reduced entire cities to rubble and forced more than 1.5 million people into refugee camps, has given the world the illusion of Israel’s invincibility.
This is far from the truth. Israel is exhausted by the conflict. Previous wars in the country’s 76-year history have been short and decisive, and this one is neither of them.
After nearly 300 days of conflict, not only is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline cabinet continuing to resist international calls for a ceasefire, but the guerrilla army of Hamas fighters has proven worryingly resilient.
His failure to eliminate Hamas will no doubt worry Israelis. And Hezbollah is not Hamas. It is a much larger group, with the support of at least 2.5 million Lebanese, almost half the population.
It is not clear whether Saturday’s killing of 12 children in a rocket attack was intended to kick off a war. It was certainly an outrageous provocation, writes Mark Almond
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visits the site of an attack allegedly from Lebanon on an Israeli village
In fact, the group rules the country south of Beirut and its leaders have been preparing for war against Israel for years, backed by vast funding and training from Iran.
Their fighters are not a militia of volunteers hiding among the civilian population and running through tunnels, but a highly organized, well-equipped and disciplined army, entrenched in heavily fortified positions.
It is not clear whether Saturday’s killing of 12 children in a rocket attack was intended to kick off a war. It was certainly an outrageous provocation.
Israel has already retaliated with airstrikes against targets in Lebanon, and there is a danger that if its response to the killings is not forceful enough, Hezbollah and its Iranian masters will feel emboldened.
But if Israel continues to escalate the violence, as seems likely, it could not come at a better time for the terrorists. This could start a war that most Israelis do not want, which would weaken Netanyahu. Already 120,000 people have fled their homes in the north because of Hezbollah rocket attacks.
Meanwhile, in the United States, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate to replace President Joe Biden in the White House, will face a foreign policy crisis. If she advocates supporting Israel, she will alienate Muslim voters and attract no Republicans to her side (Donald Trump is 100 percent pro-Israel).
But for Keir Starmer the crisis could turn out to be even worse. Many Labour MPs are furious about his past support for Israel. Protests on British streets could quickly turn into riots, especially in cities with large Muslim populations, such as Birmingham and Leeds.
And if the RAF is deployed to protect Israel against missile attacks once again, Hezbollah could attack our air bases in Cyprus, which is only 60 miles off the Lebanese coast.
Over the past few months, the world has often watched, held its breath and prayed. This time, the stakes are higher than ever.
Mark Almond is director of the Oxford Crisis Research Institute.
