The deadly airstrike that killed three Britons and four other aid workers in Gaza on Monday has shattered any assumption that the West will continue to support Israel indefinitely in its war against Hamas terrorists.
The carnage unleashed by Israeli drones is as shocking as it is disconcerting. How could the Israeli air force have launched it when the aid convoy was so clearly marked and the Israelis were informed of its whereabouts?
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attack as “a tragic case in which our forces unintentionally hit innocent people in the Gaza Strip,” before adding complacently: “This happens in times of war.”
But that is not enough. The optics of this – the unnecessary killing of well-meaning young people trying to help the disadvantaged in the most dangerous place on Earth – couldn’t be worse.
The war between Israel and Hamas has dragged on for seven months since the massacre of 1,200 Israelis by terrorists on October 7. Hamas, of course, brought the terrible human cost to Palestinian civilians in Gaza with its rampage.
Seven staff were killed in the airstrike on the aid convoy, including three British nationals.
But the global sympathy that Israel benefited from after the attack is rapidly dissipating. Against a backdrop of the relentless destruction of Gaza, the ever-rising death toll and hunger stalking the benighted territory, this terrible mistake will only fuel claims that Israel is hell-bent on trigger-happy revenge, whatever the consequences.
The fact that at least two of the three murdered Britons are former marines and that the other victims come from the United States and Australia (both staunch allies of Israel) only makes matters worse.
Like I say, we have to keep things in perspective. None of this would have happened if the monstrous Hamas terrorists had not embarked on their grotesque attack on Israel.
But Israel has to pay attention to the fact that its Western allies are increasingly warning Netanyahu’s government to reduce the civilian damage caused by its war to crush terrorists there.
However, humanitarian concerns are not the only ones troubling Israel’s Western allies. They are deeply concerned about being drawn into a larger war. There is a palpable fear that the Gaza conflict threatens peace and stability far beyond Israel.
Also on Monday, Israeli F-35 stealth bombers attacked a conclave of mortal enemies of the Jewish state at the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Senior Iranian commanders of the Revolutionary Guard of the Islamic Republic, who coordinate anti-Israel activities with Palestinian jihadists and Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah militants, were killed.
There is no need to lament them, but we cannot ignore the truth that killing bad guys can have bad consequences.
One of the World Central Kitchen aid convoy vehicles hit by Israeli airstrike in Gaza
An official inspects damage to an aid convoy vehicle in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza
The Israelis wanted to thwart the likelihood that Iran would coordinate actions against them along its northern borders with Lebanon and Syria. Rockets launched from those two countries could cause serious damage to Israel because Iran sends its proxies serious hardware.
But does Israel risk inflaming the entire Middle East by challenging the Iranian ayatollahs to retaliate?
The conflict has already spread. Egypt and the vital Suez Canal have faced disruption as the Yemeni Houthis attack Western shipping in support of Hamas.
Neutral Jordan could also be dragged away soon. Israeli F-35s flew over Jordan to make a surprise attack on the Syrian capital. They succeeded, but their violation of Jordanian neutrality puts its pro-Western government under pressure because many of its inhabitants are Palestinians who sympathize with their cousins in Gaza.
One reason for the Israeli bombers’ indirect flight route was to avoid Russian-manned air defenses based west and north of Damascus. The presence of thousands of Russian soldiers in Syria, in areas where Iranian and Hezbollah forces also operate, means that a confrontation between Putin’s troops and Israel cannot be ruled out.
US troops are also present in eastern Syria and Iraq. They have already faced sporadic drone attacks by local pro-Iran militias.
The risk of a war between Israel and Iran dragging in the superpowers, which are already at odds over Ukraine, cannot be ignored. Iran could aspire to go nuclear as Israel fears, but it does not yet have the bomb. Israel, Russia and the United States are nuclear powers, and many fear that Netanyahu is playing with fire and betting recklessly to save his political skin.
Before the war broke out, he faced calls to resign over corruption charges. His slim parliamentary majority was threatened. The Hamas attacks in October damaged his reputation as Israel’s “Mr. Security,” although, ironically, the war has saved his political career for the time being.
If Netanyahu’s political survival instinct leads him to expand the war in Gaza, he will find that he has few friends left among Israel’s traditional allies.
Because not only would it be bad for his own country, but it could also plunge the rest of us into a conflagration.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute at Oxford.