Manchester United’s Champions League hopes are at stake after their shock 4-3 defeat to Copenhagen, a result that leaves Erik ten Hag’s side bottom of Group A.
The expectation was that the Red Devils would advance from the group alongside German champions Bayern Munich, but their fate is now out of their hands.
Bayern have already booked their place in the knockout stages as group winners with two games to go, but there is a three-way battle to go through as runners-up.
Copenhagen currently sit in second place with four points, with a goal difference separating them from Galatasaray. Man United are one point further ahead of their trip to Turkey at the end of November.
Here, Mail Sport looks at the nine possible permutations for Man United.
Man United’s 4-3 defeat to Copenhagen leaves the Red Devils bottom of Group A
The Red Devils face a tricky trip to Turkey with their hopes of qualification out of their hands
Bayern Munich have qualified as group winners, with Galatasaray joining Man United and Copenhagen in a three-way battle to advance to second place in Group A
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Beat Galatasaray and Bayern Munich
A win in their tricky trip to Galatasaray, followed by a home victory over already qualified Bayern, would see Man United finish the group on nine points.
Ten Hag’s team could only be denied qualification for the knockout phase if Copenhagen received the maximum number of points from the remaining two matches.
This would require the Danes to pull off a shock victory at the Allianz Arena against Bayern in the next round. Man United would find themselves in the Europa League if Copenhagen achieved back-to-back wins.
Beat Galatasaray and draw against Bayern Munich
These two outcomes would leave Man United on seven points and likely to be sweating on the result of Copenhagen’s home match against Galatasaray in the final round.
If Copenhagen draws or loses to Bayern, a draw between the Danes and Galatasaray would take Man United into the last sixteen.
Should Copenhagen or Galatasaray win, they would join Man United on seven points. Because Man United would play an identical match against both teams, the goal difference would determine who finishes second and which team advances to the Europa League.
An unlikely victory in Copenhagen over Bayern could bring the curtains down for Man United as the Danes would be assured of second place with a win or draw against Galatasaray.
If Copenhagen were to beat Bayern and lose to Galatasaray, it would leave a three-way tie for second place, with the Turkish side continuing their head-to-head record.
Galatasaray are third in Group A but are currently the favorites to join Bayern in the last 16
Beat Galatasaray and lose to Bayern Munich
Man United would finish on six points in this scenario and would need Copenhagen to lose to Bayern to have any chance of progressing.
If they do, the Red Devils would finish second if Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw their final match, as both sides would finish on five points.
A win for both will send Man United to the Europa League.
If Copenhagen were to draw their remaining two matches, they would also finish on six points, meaning goal difference would determine whether they or Man United would progress.
Draw with Galatasaray and beat Bayern Munich
In this scenario, Ten Hag’s team ends the group on seven points.
A knockout spot would be assured if Copenhagen loses to Bayern and draws against Galatasaray. Galatasaray would finish on six points and Copenhagen on five.
Should Copenhagen lose to Bayern and beat Galatasaray in the final round, they would finish level with Man United. The goal difference would then separate the two teams.
United are out for good if Galatasaray beat Copenhagen, making Europa League football their best result. This would be determined based on goal difference.
A victory in Copenhagen over Bayern would end United’s Champions League campaign. Such a result would guarantee that the Danes or Galatasaray would surpass their total.
Defeat against Galatasaray at the end of the month would end Man United’s last-16 hopes
Draw both games
Out. Could finish third if Copenhagen fails to get two points from the remaining matches.
Loss to Galatasaray and defeated Bayern Munich
Out. Would secure Europa League football if Copenhagen loses a match or on goal difference if the Danes draw both matches.
Loss to Galatasaray and draw against Bayern
Out. Copenhagen should lose both matches, with goal difference determining who ends up in the Europa League.
Lose both games
Man United finishes bottom.
Although Manchester United’s hopes will end with defeat to Galatasaray, it is likely that they will need to win in Turkey and then secure a positive result against Bayern to have any chance of progressing.
The OptaAnalyst gives Manchester United a 26 percent chance of reaching the last sixteen.
Galatasaray are 45 percent favourites, despite finishing third, having eliminated both games against Bayern.