Manchester City may be the reigning English, European and world champions, but they are no longer the favorites to win the Premier League, according to new statistics.
City are probably the best team in the world right now, coming off a sensational treble in 2022-23, but they have yet to start firing at their fierce and ruthless best this season.
That said, Pep Guardiola’s side remain third in the table, four points off the top with a game in hand, so they remain in the conversation, and their previous pedigree still keeps them as favorites for many.
The Citizens looked close to embarking on one of their fearsome ‘streaks’ in which they seem almost unstoppable, but they hit something of a roadblock against Chelsea at the weekend.
A late equalizer from Rodri spared them the blushes after Raheem Sterling returned to torment his former club in the first half, the match ending 1-1 and City dropping points, which appears to have hurt their chances of retaining their crown.
Pep Guardiola’s side drew 1-1 at home to Chelsea on Saturday, dealing a blow to their title chances.
The reigning champions saw their title ambitions hit by 17 percent and lost even more ground.
Erik ten Hag’s side have been in good form of late and have seen their Champions League hopes improve.
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According to Twenty First Group data, Manchester City are now only the second favorite to go all the way, but only by one percentage point.
This comes after a matchweek in which City’s chances dropped by 17 per cent, while Liverpool’s improved by 11 per cent and Arsenal’s by seven per cent.
Despite a drastic overhaul in the summer, Liverpool are now leapfrogging the champions and leading the way with a 38 per cent chance of winning the title.
The Reds top the table with 57 points, having lost just two games all year, and still have a chance of winning the Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Europa League and Premier League this season.
They may also be encouraged by the fact that their technical talisman, Jurgen Klopp, has already announced his intentions to leave the club at the end of the campaign, and everyone at Anfield surely hopes to see him off as champions once again.
Behind the Reds are City with 37 percent, and Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, runners-up in 2022-23, in third place, with 25 percent.
The Gunners have had another impressive season, although a wobble in the festive period caused them to lose their rhythm.
However, the victory over Liverpool in early February marked a return to top form and he has since scored 21 goals in five games.
City’s draw has seen them drop to second place while Liverpool surpass them in percentage chance of lifting the title.
Jurgen Klopp’s team are at the top of the table and have now overtaken Manchester City as the most likely champions
Arsenal have been in great form of late after scoring 21 goals in five games to put them second in the table.
Arteta and company are just two points behind Liverpool, who now sit in second place, and despite having taken four points from the Reds and three from City this season, are considered the third most likely champions by Group Twenty-One.
There is then a considerable drop to fourth and fifth place, with Aston Villa (19 points) and Tottenham (47 points) with less than one per cent chance of winning the title the only other teams above zero.
In terms of the race for the Champions League places, each of the top three has a more than 99 per cent chance of securing qualification, which is perhaps understandable.
Villa and Spurs have a 73 percent and 62 percent chance of reaching the competition, while Manchester United (28 percent), Newcastle (seven percent), Chelsea (five percent), Brighton (four percent ) and West Ham. (one percent) are external contenders.
However, Tottenham had seen their qualification chances drop by 16 per cent after losing 2-1 at home to Wolves on Saturday, while United’s rose by six per cent amid their own mini-resurgence in the last weeks.
Unai Emery’s Villa seemingly had the best week of all, with their hopes of finishing in the Champions League places increasing by 12 per cent after beating Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage.
Twenty First Group data shows how the recent game week has altered the odds of Premier League success and Champions League qualification this season.
Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham have seen their Champions League hopes plummet following defeat to Wolves at home on Saturday.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Nottingham Forest’s victory over West Ham gave them a boost as they attempt to overcome the drop.
They are now 12 per cent better off in their relegation battle, while Luton have fallen nine per cent.
The three teams promoted to the top flight at the start of the season remain the most likely candidates for demotion with 71 per cent (Luton), 92 per cent (Burnley) and 98 per cent (Sheffield United) to return to the league. Championship.
Despite currently being in the bottom three and receiving a 10-point penalty, Sean Dyche’s Everton are only the fourth most likely team to go down, with an 18 per cent chance of relegation.