Alarm bells are ringing for the Albanese government with a new poll showing voters are favouring the coalition over Labor, in a sign the government’s cost of living relief may not be enough.
The Coalition has gained one percentage point in a month to lead Labor by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, in the latest Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the Australian financial magazine.
This marks a massive 4.1 point swing away from Labour since the May 2022 election and puts a minority coalition government into play.
If repeated uniformly at a federal election, the shift would give the Coalition 75 seats, just one short of a majority, while Labor would fall from 78 to 65.
Labor’s primary vote fell two points to 30 percent, down from the 32.6 percent it received at the last election, while the Coalition’s rose one point to 42 percent.
The Greens also rose one point to 13 percent.
Anthony Albanese still leads opposition leader Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 45 to 41 percent, but his disapproval rating has risen 4 points in a month to 49 percent and his approval has fallen 1 point to 34 percent.
This gives him an overall approval rating of -15, compared to Mr Dutton, who scored -4, with an approval rating of 34, a decrease of 1 point in one month, but his disapproval rating increased by four points, to 34.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be concerned by the latest polls, which show his government’s fortunes continuing to decline.
The main issue that continues to weigh down the Labour government is the cost of living, which easily tops the list of the top three issues of concern to voters, having been chosen by 74 per cent of those surveyed.
On this issue, the Coalition has doubled its lead to 14 points as the best party to curb uncontrolled prices.
Housing and accommodation was the second most important issue of concern to voters, followed by health and social care, economic management, crime and social order, and the environment and climate change ranked second.
The Coalition’s biggest advantages over Labor in terms of perceived competence came in defense and national security (19), economic management (16), immigration and asylum (15), taxes and public spending (15), crime and social order (14) and cost of living (14).
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton (pictured left with his wife Kirilly Dutton) is hoping to come out on top in the upcoming federal election.
Labor Minister Clare O’Neil said the government was focused on the cost of living and affordable housing ahead of the federal election, which is due to be held at the end of May.
He pointed to government tax cuts, a $300 energy bill rebate to help households pay their electric bills this year and cheaper medicines.
“All of these things are really important and the coalition opposed almost all of them,” O’Neil told Nine’s Today show.
“There is one party in Canberra that is desperately focused on trying to take the pressure off Australians and that is Labor, and we will continue to do so right up to election day.”
But independent senator Jacqui Lambie said the government was “delusional” if it thought it would lead to a second term.
“Labor is a bit delusional, to be honest,” she told Nine.
‘We’re about to enter Christmas, there’s going to be an election next year, we’re going to have all those Christmas credit card bills with everything people can afford to buy.
“Then the kids go back to school and we still don’t know what’s happening with interest rates.”
Senator Lambie also questioned the value of the energy bill rebates, saying bills overall were not falling.
“I don’t think people are getting the shock of this… as the Labour Party thinks they are getting,” he said.
‘I would ask them to get out of their bubble, out of their offices, and go out there with their boots on.
“They are not doing things right and there is not enough help available.”
Commenting on the poll results, Freshwater Strategy director Michael Turner told the Australian Financial Review that the most likely outcome at the next election was a minority government for either the Coalition or Labor.
“We are really in a uncertain zone, and at this point it is a matter of speculation as to who will be able to form a government,” Dr Turner said.
“If an election were held today, no one can be sure that Labour would have the numbers to form a minority, let alone a majority government.”
The online survey of 1,057 voters was conducted from Friday to Saturday.
Although Labour’s fortunes are far from lost at this point, the polls have been trending consistently southwards, raising the prospect of a one-term government.
A recent poll by publisher News Ltd showed the Albanese government losing ground in the eastern states (where most of the electoral seats are), with Labor holding 24 per cent in Queensland, 28 per cent in Victoria and 32 per cent in New South Wales.
On a two-party preference basis, Labor is trailing the Coalition 57-43 in Queensland, trails 52-48 in Victoria and is tied 50-50 in New South Wales.