This weekend, Republicans gather for their convention in Milwaukee in the wake of two events that in other times would have seemed like political earthquakes.
The first was Donald Trump’s conviction in a New York court on 34 counts of falsifying business records, meaning his party will next week formally nominate a criminal for the nation’s highest office.
His sentencing, originally scheduled for Friday, has been postponed until September as the justices absorb the implications of a Supreme Court ruling that states presidents cannot be prosecuted for official acts performed in office.
Then came Joe Biden’s faltering performance in the first televised debate between the two, forcing Americans to confront the question of whether their commander in chief was up to the job now, let alone his likely capabilities four years from now.
NATO’s press conference on Thursday night, in which he introduced Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” and referred to his own vice president as “Vice President Trump,” did little to ease his doubts. The chain of events encapsulates the big question facing voters in November: the suitability of the two candidates for office, whether moral or literal.
More voters believe Donald Trump’s beliefs will help rather than hinder his chances of being elected in November
Many view the charges against Trump as a political rather than legal exercise, part of a long campaign to discredit the former president that dates back to 2016.
Perhaps even more remarkable than the two momentous stories themselves is that neither had a significant impact on the polls.
In my three polls conducted before and after the verdicts, and again after the televised debate, I found that, if anything, Trump’s position has strengthened slightly since his case concluded, but none of the events led to a move outside the margin of error.
Nearly half of Trump voters in 2020 say their beliefs make them… Further They are likely to vote for him in November, and more voters now think the legal proceedings against him will help his chances rather than hurt them.
Non-Americans are asking: How can it be that a candidate’s conviction for fraud has no effect on his standing? There are several answers.
One is that many see the accusations against Trump as a political rather than a legal exercise, part of a long campaign to discredit the former president that stretches back to 2016. Another is that people admire his staying power and his continued ability to overcome adversity, even if he himself creates some of it.
But above all, as always, they weigh it against everything else and decide that there are other things more important — especially a failing economy, troubling commitments abroad and memories of better times under President Trump.
As one woman from Pennsylvania told us: “I don’t like his behavior or a lot of the terrible things he’s done, but from a business standpoint, he does a fantastic job. He said things that people didn’t want to hear, but it was the truth and people needed to hear it.”
For much of his presidency, Biden’s re-election campaign has been a race against time.
The worse the economy feels, the more willing voters will be to overlook Trump’s obvious shortcomings and return him to the White House; the taller the green shoots of economic recovery, the less stomach they will have for 4 a.m. tweets and other daily features of the Donald Trump show.
According to my poll, the country is divided on what is more important: Biden’s physical and mental abilities or Trump’s character and judgment. In Biden’s view, this means the economy has to work harder to compensate.
America is divided over what matters more: Biden’s physical and mental ability or Trump’s character and judgment, writes LORD ASHCROFT
Only a quarter of voters, including just one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better than they did four years ago.
Yet despite improving indicators like lower inflation and a soaring stock market, few Americans feel better yet. Part of the Democrats’ problem is that people are comparing their current circumstances to how things were before COVID, which is also before Biden.
It may be unfair, but that’s how politics works, and only a quarter of voters, including just one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better than they did four years ago.
Americans face two demons they know all too well
At the same time, Biden’s newfound prominence of health as a campaign issue effectively neutralizes Trump’s negative aspects.
The natural thing to do would be to pass the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris, but that clearly puts Democrats in an even tougher position. They fear they won’t be able to win with Harris at the top of the ticket, and rightly so: her approval ratings are no better than the president’s.
But they cannot open the race to other potential nominees without appearing disrespectful to a woman of color and provoking the biggest controversy on the American left (which no one would enjoy more than Trump).
Some are beginning to understand that they can preserve the fragile unity of the Democratic Party or they can keep the White House, but they may not be able to do both.
Support for Trump appears solid. Americans say he would do a better job than Biden on four of the five most important issues — the cost of living, the economy and jobs, immigration and crime — and, at least for now, he is doing better among younger and minority voters than recent Republicans could dream of.
Older voters are more likely to support Biden because of issues like Medicare and Social Security, as well as greater sympathy for his age-related controversies.
As partisan loyalties weaken, people increasingly look to the candidate they think would do the best job for them, no matter how much their grandparents were horrified by his or her election.
Meanwhile, it is older voters who are most supportive of Biden, either because they trust him more to protect Medicare and Social Security, have some idea of how a president should behave, or have a mild sympathy for him because of his age-related controversies.
One of the unusual features of this election is that it is not a duel between “change” and the “known evil” – rather, Americans are facing two demons they know all too well.
In 2020, they voted to replace chaos and division with what they hoped would be a kind of moderation and calm. Four years later, many say life is no better for them, and they have a president with his own very glaring flaws.
With four months to go until the race begins, it seems there is still room for another dramatic chapter in this story. We don’t know how the legal cases will be resolved or how the Democrats’ internal drama will play out, but my poll found that something changed after the now infamous debate: more Americans were convinced that Trump would win.
Lord Ashcroft is an international businessman, author, philanthropist and pollster. His research is based in LordAshcroft.com PollsFollow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft
