A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Florida Keys.
People living in the southwestern area of the Sunshine State could experience heavy rain and flooding on Wednesday as Tropical Storm Rafael gains strength in the Atlantic.
Forecasters confirmed that Rafael will be upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane when it reaches Cuba on Wednesday, but will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves toward the United States at the end of the week.
And now a spaghetti pattern (so called because the lines look like strips of pasta) shows the path the storm will take in the coming days.
Rafael will also reach Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana on Saturday, packing winds of 40 miles per hour, with the storm possibly reaching as far north as Tennessee.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that the Keys could see water levels rise by one to two feet, causing “life-threatening surf and rip currents.”
These conditions will last about six or seven hours and will bring two to four inches of rain with wind gusts in the range of 40 to 60 miles per hour.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson told DailyMail.com they expect “storm-force conditions” to occur over the Florida Keys.
He added that a tornado could form in the region in parts of the west coast of Florida, but clarified that it will not be like previous hurricanes that recently made landfall.
A spaghetti model has revealed the projected path of Tropical Storm Rafael. The storm’s impact is likely to extend 105 miles from its center and hit the Florida Keys on Wednesday.
At 7 a.m. ET, Rafael was 80 miles southwest of Montego Bay in Jamaica and moving northwest at 13 miles per hour with wind speeds reaching 60 miles per hour.
At 7 a.m. ET, Rafael was 80 miles southwest of Montego Bay in Jamaica and moving northwest at 13 miles per hour with wind speeds reaching 60 miles per hour.
The spaghetti model shows Rafael will pass through the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Jamaica before heading towards Florida.
The NHC issued a public notice on Tuesday, showing that Tropical Storm Rafael will steadily intensify, with wind speeds extending 105 miles outward from the center of the storm.
Once wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour, Rafael will be upgraded to a hurricane.
“The combination of a storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising waters moving inland from the coast,” the NHC said.
Anderson said they expect the storm to weaken from a hurricane to a tropical storm when it reaches the southeast coast of Louisiana, adding, “We really don’t expect any major impacts to the United States.”
Residents living in Key West and Marathon will be hardest hit by a “one to three foot storm surge in Key West,” Anderson said, adding, “So there will certainly be some street flooding.”
Rafael is expected to be upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane when it reaches Cuba on Wednesday, bringing up to 10 inches of rain in some areas.
The spaghetti model, created by Tropical thingsshowed that the storm is likely to move northwest from its current location in the tropical Atlantic.
The computer model was created by combining multiple forecast tracks from different weather models into a single map.
And each line, which resembles a strand of spaghetti, represents a forecast of a different weather mode used by the NHC.
The storm will reach the southern tip of Florida on Wednesday night and, according to AccuWeather, will remain a Category 2 hurricane when it passes west of the state at 7 a.m. ET on Thursday.
It will pass through the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday and is expected to downgrade to a tropical storm at 7 a.m. ET on Saturday as it approaches Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
The storm will continue to move up into Tennessee over the weekend and will clear out early Monday morning.
The storm is likely to hit states such as Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
States further south are expected to experience up to three inches of rain and high tides of one to two feet.
Meteorologist Nicolette Nolan said C.B.S.: ‘The Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida should be on alert for impacts at the end of the week.’
Forecasters remain unsure if the storm’s intensity will remain the same when it hits Florida later this week, but they said it could cause localized wind damage and flash flooding in some areas.
“The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given the significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts will occur. could occur,” the NHC said on Monday.
However, the agency reported that Cuba and the Cayman Islands will be hardest hit, with rainfall reaching up to 10 inches in some areas, causing flash flooding and landslides.
This is the 18th storm to form in the Atlantic this year, reflecting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) prediction that 2024 would be an above-average hurricane season.
November marks the last month of hurricane season, but up to three more named storms could form before it ends.
