The latest projection from a liberal pollster shows Donald Trump would win a landslide victory over Kamala Harris.
Nate Silver’s prediction puts the Republican candidate’s chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to Harris’s 36 percent.
Silver’s modeling, published on her blog Silver BulletinIt also puts Trump ahead in all the key states.
He predicts 312 electoral college votes for Trump versus 226 for Harris in a map where there is no tie.
That’s a huge increase from the 227 he won against Biden in 2020 and an even improvement from his landslide victory of 304 against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Liberal pollster’s latest projection shows Donald Trump has scored a landslide victory over Kamala Harris
Silver had been predicting a Harris victory until August 29, the date of her CNN interview with running mate Tim Walz.
Since then, Trump has steadily gained a larger lead in his predictions and is now favored to win by the largest margin in months.
Other pollsters, however, are more conservative, putting Harris only marginally ahead.
RealClear’s model shows the vice president would win with 273 electoral college votes to Trump’s 265 in a map where there is no tie.
Project 538’s latest forecast is completely at odds with Silver’s, putting the Electoral College vote at 281 for Harris and 257 for Trump.
This comes after a New York Times/Siena College poll released two days before the debate put Trump 1 percent ahead of the vice president (48 percent to 47 percent), within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
Silver’s estimate for the popular vote still has Harris ahead, with her chances of securing the popular vote at 56 percent, compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
But their margins are minuscule: Harris narrowly leads Trump with an estimated 49.8 percent of the popular vote to the Republican nominee’s 49.1 percent.
“The good news for Harris is that there will be a debate on Tuesday and if she does well, no one will care as much about the Times poll,” Silver said.
Nate Silver’s prediction puts the Republican candidate’s chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to Harris’s 36 percent.
Crucially, Silver put Trump ahead in electoral college votes in every key state.
‘A relatively high percentage of voters in the NYT poll said they didn’t know what Harris stood for, meaning there’s room for these numbers to move.
“But they could move in any direction as the Trump team circulates sound bites and video clips.”
The presidential hopefuls will face off in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
Last week, polls suggested Harris received little to no boost after the Democratic convention and showed Trump ahead of the vice president in several key states.
A Trafalgar Group poll of seven of the toughest contests — considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada — shows Trump either leading or tied with Harris.
