About a year ago around this time, the Las Vegas Raiders were supposedly buoyant.
Fired head coach Josh McDaniels’ malign approach had been exorcised from the franchise, victory cigars were back in style, players felt heard and Las Vegas team owner Mark Davis seemed to have renewed optimism. in his step. Even with a poor 2-3 record in the PM (post-McDaniels) era, things were starting to feel good again by mid-December 2023. There was hope. And as the rest of the season progressed, it seemed well grounded.
The Raiders and interim head coach Antonio Pierce would take McDaniels’ 3-5 start and match it with a 5-4 finish. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell would replace benched Jimmy Garoppolo and appear to be a feasible project. Even skeptical receiver Davante Adams was willing to give the situation another chance. Everything had the ingredients of something with… well, it had paste. That was a start.
On Sunday, that start finally and completely cratered. Frankly, the implosion began in early October, when the 2-2 Raiders began an epic descent to the depths of the AFC, by virtue of a losing streak that reached nine games with Sunday’s 28-13 loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. a loss that left Las Vegas with a 2-11 record and tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL, but also without O’Connell, who appeared to suffer a significant leg injury in the game. loss. And if the NFL Draft started today, the Raiders would own the No. 1 overall pick in a tiebreaker and with a lot of hype.
That post-McDaniels dynamism in 2023? The 2024 Raiders are a block of cement locked in a safe buried under the Titanic.
Now that I think about it, cross out the previous rating. This plummet to an all-too-familiar depth did not begin in October. It started last offseason, when the Raiders knew they had a lingering quarterback problem on their hands and responded by signing journeyman Gardner Minshew to a two-year, $25 million contract. An initial bridge deal in March that finally built a bridge to…nowhere. That is, unless the ultimate plan was to groom O’Connell, a 2023 fourth-round pick talented enough to lose his starting job to Minshew, into something bigger than anyone expected.
I don’t think that was the plan. I think the Raiders’ brass, including general manager Tom Telesco, believed Michael Penix Jr. would fall low enough in the 2024 draft to make his selection viable on their own draft board. What management didn’t anticipate was that Penix had a higher premium on him in other organizations, and that the 2024 quarterback group was exponentially better than what would come in the 2025 draft.
If we’re going to be brutally honest about the Raiders, we’d start with Davis. But that’s a story for another time. We’ll get there at some point. Instead, let’s overlook Davis for the moment and aim straight for that quarterback spot. But rather than bring up why Las Vegas didn’t act more aggressively in what could prove to be a historically great quarterback draft in 2024, let’s accept that their first pick, tight end Brock Bowers, is a huge rock. angular on which to build. And let’s see what the Raiders’ options are from this point on.
First, let’s try to clean up some of the information chaos surrounding the quarterback situation. There have been conflicting claims about whether or not Davis ordered the selection of a quarterback in the upcoming NFL Draft. After speaking with a couple of sources within the team, here’s what they told me: Davis wants some type of meaningful plan and long-term resolution at the quarterback position. So far, that hasn’t included directly telling management what they need to do or who they need to recruit. HoweverThere is clearly a perception within the Raiders that Davis is dissatisfied with the status quo at the position and believes the upcoming offseason will be a turning point for the franchise.
With this in mind, here are two main points I’ve made.
First, pay attention to the influence of minority owner Tom Brady.
While Brady has only a 5 percent ownership stake in the Raiders, I’m told that a major verbal condition of Davis’s deal for Brady to buy the franchise was that he will have a heavy hand on the operations side of the Raiders. ledger football. And a big part of that responsibility will be helping fix, or at least brutally evaluate, all the moves surrounding the quarterback depth chart. Davis is looking for an honest agent when it comes to cutting through the noise. Unlike Telesco or Pierce or anyone else offering an opinion, Brady doesn’t have looming concerns about his employment situation. You have both the experience to offer a meaningful assessment and the freedom to be frank about it. He doesn’t have to fear Davis’ advantage. And from what I’ve been told, Davis absolutely wants to hear it from someone who isn’t worried about being fired.
As one source said: “It’s not like we’ve had meetings with Brady sitting in them. But (Brady) is not a figurehead. (Mark Davis) obviously respects him. This is what he wants and that’s the goal (of the Brady property). (Brady) will affect some decisions or affect Mark’s opinion. It’s the same at this point. It’s not that (the front office) doesn’t matter. But it’s not like Mark is going to ignore Tom when it comes to the quarterbacks and where they’re going, that’s not going to happen. It’s quite the opposite. Mark will ask: ‘What do you think?’ And that’s what Mark thinks. …What Tom will say about quarterbacks, I bet you that’s what happens. That’s what I think will happen. Maybe I’m wrong. We’ll see. But I think whoever (Tom) likes, Mark likes. We’ll see. “It will be a journey.”
If that’s the reality, then Brady could very well be the person to select the Raiders’ quarterback in 2025. And maybe he will be.
With that in mind, if the Raiders end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, it’s worth examining the strong, long-standing relationship he’s had with Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, whom Brady has known personally forever. We go back to Shedeur’s days as a nationally recruited high school player in Texas. Over the years, Brady has coached, mentored, and repeatedly received rave reviews about Sanders’ talent and work ethic. And it’s worth noting that Sanders also fits Brady’s ideal: a quarterback who took his time to learn and develop his craft within a program. Yes, Sanders did it at two different universities, following his father Deion Sanders, first at Jackson State and then at Colorado, but he could also have entered the draft after his 2023 season and been selected within the first two rounds of the 2024 draft. . But instead he returned to Colorado, honing a resume that will make him a surefire first-round pick in the 2025 draft.
And not that it matters, but it does matter with Shedeur Sanders: Deion appeared on video telling Raiders coach Antonio Pierce to “draft those Sanders guys,” referring to Shedeur and his brother, Colorado safety Shilo Sanders, who is also projected as a late-round NFL Draft pick.
It’s hard to ignore that all of this has a lot of traction. If the New York Giants don’t end up with the No. 1 pick in the draft (which, at this point, the Giants are the favorites to land that spot), then the Raiders will be in a prime position to select a player with whom Davis has had an interesting interaction. …and who Brady clearly likes.
Which brings us to the second point I have been directed to.
Second, Mark Davis will be short on money, but there is plenty of room to build around a rookie QB.
Realistically, a few other names are going to come up in the Raiders’ effort to solve their quarterback problem. Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings, if he does indeed hit free agency (which is debatable at this point), is a player Las Vegas should be extremely interested in. If he continues his current trajectory, the Atlanta Falcons’ Kirk Cousins is another capable veteran starter who could find himself available next offseason. Aaron Rodgers? It is a name that will circulate.
One thing I want everyone to keep in mind about all of these other names: At this stage, they are all more expensive than a rookie quarterback. Unless the Vikings decide to sign Darnold and then trade current rookie JJ McCarthy, or the Falcons suddenly decide to move on from Penix, which seems less likely than ever, the best options on the table will be expensive. Acquiring McCarthy or Penix on a rookie quarterback contract would be great, but I’d bet they’ll both have similar evaluations to Sanders at the end of this draft rotation. Which means you just draft Sanders, instead of making your life difficult.
What happens with Darnold in free agency? If he finishes the season strong, he’ll fetch $40 million per year (and maybe $50 million at the end of this season) in open market bids. Cousins via trade? I highly doubt Atlanta would be willing to eat up most of their accelerated cap just to get to Penix, so that would be pretty expensive as well. Rodgers? It’s not even worth shooting down his candidacy. There is no reason for the Raiders to sign Rodgers or for Rodgers to play in Las Vegas. At this point it would be a catastrophe for both parties.
The most likely path, two Raiders sources told me, is to target potential extensions within the team and then prioritize drafting the top rookie quarterback, followed by regretful roster development. Could that mean moving away from Pierce as head coach after just one season? That all depends on how the 2024 campaign ends and also the options available to pair with a new starting quarterback.
What is clear at this moment is that there is no defined and closed plan. There are still four games left to play, including against a Falcons team this week that is struggling to stay afloat in the NFC and a Los Angeles Chargers franchise in the Week 18 season finale that may need a win to reach the postseason. Between that, two games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints that are winnable, but also capable of knocking the Raiders out of the No. 1 pick.
It’s a difficult position for this franchise. But also one that took root a long time ago. And at this point, the Raiders have no one to blame except the owners, who should have seen it coming.