Table of Contents
Best spot of the week: Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson Jr. has been excellent for Fantasy managers this season. He has scored more than 10 fantasy points in six of seven games this year and has even played injured in multiple games. He has proven to be someone you can trust and his role has been excellent this year. Robinson is averaging over 16 snaps per game and ranks in the top 10 in red zone touches this year. The paper is strong and so is its efficiency. Robinson currently ranks eighth in EPA among all RBs and continues to break tackles at an above-average rate.
This week, Robinson faces a division rival: the Giants. New York is allowing the most rushing yards per play this season and is coming off a week in which they allowed 131 total yards to Najee Harris. Start Robinson off with confidence this week.
Incomplete Spot of the Week: JK Dobbins
Dobbins has failed to surpass 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games. He has struggled to break tackles and create explosive plays since his first two games of the season. One of those games was against the Panthers, who we now know are one of the worst defenses in the leagues. Dobbins now ranks 52nd in broken tackle rate and just 33rd in yards per touch according to Player Profiler.
The recent streak of poor play could get worse this week. Dobbins will face the Browns on the road. Cleveland has the number one run defense in the NFL according to PFF. It’s an uncertain spot for Dobbins, who looks like a touchdown-or-bust candidate for Week 9.
If you have another option, I would consider starting them.
Pickup and Game of the Week: Elijah Moore vs. LAC
All the attention in the Browns WR room is on Cedric Tillman and for good reason. Tillman has recorded 15 receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks without Amari Cooper. The hype is justified, but this hype is allowing Elijah Moore’s Week 8 usage to go unnoticed.
In Week 8, Moore posted a team-high 30% target percentage and turned it into a solid day of eight catches for 85 yards. Moore is a talented receiver who has demonstrated career success when combined with capable quarterback play. We saw that in Week 8 when Jameis Winston completed 66% of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Jameis leaned on Moore often when it came to third downs and low-pressure situations. This is a good indicator that Jameis trusts Moore. You can pick up and play Moore this week against the Chargers, who allowed 107 yards to Chris Olave last week.
Upward trend: WR Josh Downs
Downs has been the Colts’ best receiver this season. He leads the team with a 26% target share and has finished as a top-20 receiver in four of his six starts. Downs is trending up because the Colts made the decision to sit QB Anthony Richardson and put in veteran Joe Flacco. This is an instant improvement for the entire passing game, as Richardson was completing a league-low 50% of his passes and just 25% of his deep attempts.
In three starts under Joe Flacco, Downs has averaged 10 goals per game and an average fantasy finish of WR13. This means Downs has been a borderline WR1 for fantasy with Flacco as his QB. Downs faces the Vikings this week, who have struggled defensively in the last two games. Minnesota allowed 280 yards and two touchdowns to Jared Goff in Week 7, while completing 88% of his passes. In Week 8, the Vikings gave up 279 yards and four touchdowns to Matthew Stafford. Start Downs with confidence this week.
Downtrend: WR Zay Flowers
Flowers is coming off a strong rebound performance. In Week 8, he produced 115 yards on seven receptions. Flowers had a season-high 36% target percentage in this game, and has now seen a team-high 27% of the Ravens’ targets this season. This is all great news as Flowers continues to excel in his second year. But on Tuesday, Flowers’ fantasy stock took a big hit.
The Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson. Johnson is an elite player who knows how to separate and get open. He has earned a 26% target percentage since entering the NFL for a total of 697 career targets. Ranked sixth in the NFL since 2019 according to Statmuse. Johnson will replace Nelson Agholor in the Ravens’ offense. Agholor has only scored 10% of the team’s goals this season. The addition of Johnson will likely lower Flowers’ target percentage, which reduces his weekly fantasy value. Flowers is trending downwards despite his good start to the season.
Top Sale of the Week: Tucker Kraft
Kraft has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy football this season. He was a relative unknown entering 2024. Kraft had offseason surgery and appeared to be behind TE Luke Musgrave on the depth chart. But it was evident from Week 1 that Kraft was the boy in this TE room, when he participated in 96% of the Packers’ plays. He currently ranks seventh in TE points per game this season, but his production is not sustainable. Kraft has a 20% touchdown rate this season. This means 20% of his receptions went for touchdowns, about four times more than the NFL average.
Over the last three games, the Packers have recovered all of their WRs from injuries and/or suspensions. During this time, Kraft has earned just 11% of the team’s targets, which ranks sixth behind RB Josh Jacobs and WR4 Dontayvion Wicks. His role is not good right now and has been propped up by touchdowns. According to the player profilerKraft ranks 20th in TE expected fantasy points based on usage. This puts him in close range with Jonnu Smith and Tyler Conklin on the season. Now is the time to sell high. Try to trade him for someone like TJ Hockenson or Bucky Irving if you can.
Lowest Purchase of the Week: Mike Evans
It’s the perfect time to buy cheap at Mike Evans. There was a lot of talk last week about which Bucs receiver would replace Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 8. But unfortunately, the answer was neither of them. Rookie Jalen McMillan led receivers with seven targets, but could only produce 35 target yards. The Bucs relied on TE Cade Otton and their RBs in the passing game instead of replacement WRs. This is very likely to continue in the coming weeks.
Evans is a great buy-low option right now as he recovers from a hamstring injury. He has finished as a top-10 receiver in three of his five complete games this season. Evans has earned a solid 23% target share in those five completed games and once he returns, he will no longer have to compete with Chris Godwin for targets. But there’s even more good news because Evans has a great fantasy playoff schedule. They will face the Cowboys and Panthers; Both teams rank in the top five in passing yards allowed this season. according to NFL Pro. Trade someone like JK Dobbins or Darnell Mooney for Evans if you can.
Must start the week: Chase Brown
Brown has been trending upward this past month in the Bengals’ offense. Over his last three games, he leads the Bengals backfield with 56% snaps and has won 60% of rushing attempts. according to fantasy life. In Week 8, Brown earned a season-high 67% of the team’s carries and turned this into a 14-touch game for 34 yards and a touchdown. Brown has now scored 10+ points in four of his last five games with three top-20 finishes during this stretch.
This week Brown finds himself in a great situation. They are a seven-point home favorite against the Raiders. This sets up nicely for Brown to get a lot of touches in the second half. Las Vegas is last in boarding this season according to PFF. This makes them a great matchup for any running back, but it’s even better for Brown because he’s breaking tackles at a top-10 rate this season. Make sure Brown is in your lineup this week and consider trading for him if he’s not already on your roster.
