Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Donald Trump in our DailyMail.com/JL Partners poll for the first time following her strong performance in last week’s debate.
But everything remains to be decided with just 49 days to go until the elections.
Harris now holds a one-point lead over the former president in our poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted the week after the candidates faced off on the debate stage in Pennsylvania.
Harris is the choice of 43 percent of voters (up two points from our last poll on August 13), while Trump is the favorite of 42 percent (down two points).
The shift appears to be driven by huge changes among Hispanic voters.
JL Partners surveyed 1,000 likely voters using landlines, cellphones, online panels and in-app techniques from Sept. 11-16. The results have a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
Trump has lost 17 points of support, eliminating his lead among what could be a crucial group in several key battleground states.
His support among black voters has also been cut in half, from 13 percent to 6 percent.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the debate had helped Harris with three key groups since our August poll.
“First of all, the independents: among them she now leads Trump by four points,” he said.
‘Secondly, among those aged 50 to 64, where it has reduced a 16-point deficit to just a two-point difference.
Third, Hispanic voters have been turning away from Trump in recent weeks. It’s hard to say exactly why, but given that the biggest political story of the past month was the debate, that has something to do with it.
Hispanics in particular were a key part of the coalition that propelled Biden to victory four years ago.
And Harris will likely need their votes in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona to win in November.
He has enjoyed a bonanza in fundraising and polling since he unexpectedly entered the race in July.
Trump was leading Harris among Hispanic voters in August, but his support has since plummeted.
Our panel of independent voters declared Vice President Kamala Harris the best performer of the night, calling her more presidential than Donald Trump.
Viewers thought Trump won on the key issues of the economy and the border.
There were signs, however, that the honeymoon was ending as his momentum in the polls began to stall.
Against that backdrop, he came to the ABC News debate with something to prove and a plan to get on Trump’s nerves. And it seemed to work.
She wasted no time in mocking his protests, prompting the former president to repeat a wild internet rumor that illegal immigrants were killing and eating pets.
He sometimes raised his voice and seemed distracted from his own plan to focus attention on Harris.
JL Partners conducted an independent online survey to analyze voter attitudes. Respondents who indicated their opinion of Harris had become more positive were asked to explain why.
“The more I listen to her and what happened in the debate, the more positive I am about her,” said a 75-year-old Republican who said he voted for Trump in 2020 but planned to vote for Harris in November.
Several other respondents also specifically cited the debate.
“At first I thought she was a bad candidate, but I started to realize she’s the only option,” said a 22-year-old candidate from Texas who voted for Trump in 2020.
Since the debate, Trump and his supporters have defended claims that Haitians are eating people’s pets in Springfield, Ohio, saying it has highlighted how communities are struggling to cope with the new arrivals.
Trump has also been forced to defend his close relationship with Laura Loomer, a right-wing conspiracy theorist who travelled with him to 9/11 memorials last week, despite having once claimed the terrorist attacks were an inside job.
But the campaign took another turn on Sunday, pushing those headlines off the front pages.
Police arrested Ryan Routh, 58, after a gunman was spotted at Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach in an apparent assassination attempt.
Johnson said Harris could be pleased with her strong showing among Hispanics, independents and voters aged 50 to 64, but that Trump had the advantage of an Electoral College system that meant he would need to dominate the national vote to take the White House.
“Of the groups that are going to advance, those three are among the best: they represent a lot of voters, and how they get there will determine the election,” he said.
“But we must not get carried away by emotion. This is still an incredibly close election.
‘Harris still relies on younger voters for the bulk of her support, a group that doesn’t always turn out to vote on Election Day. And even with these numbers, Trump would win the Electoral College vote and be on his way to the White House.’