Donald Trump overtook Joe Biden in DailyMail.com’s hypothetical 2024 poll, a year before the expected rematch of the last election.
This shows that the favorite for the Republican nomination came back from two points behind in June, during the last poll, to take a one point lead over his probable Democratic opponent.
His rise is fueled by the shift of independent voters and gains among college graduates, who make up the bulk of support for Biden.
The race nevertheless remains incredibly close. And the poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted by JL Partners, has a margin of error of 3.1 points.
Still, this should be a warning to the Biden-Harris campaign.
Donald Trump overtook Joe Biden in our 2024 DailyMail.com/JL Partners national poll. He holds a one-point lead after overturning the two-point deficit from June
The 2024 election is shaping up to be a rematch of the 2020 election, when Biden beat Trump.
James Johnson, co-founder of JLP, said: “Just three months ago, a Trump-Biden rematch looked like a Democratic race to defeat. Today, everything has changed and Donald Trump is taking over.
“Not only is Trump maximizing enthusiasm among Republicans, but he has also outpaced Biden among independents, outpaced him among black and Hispanic voters, and won support among younger men.”
In June, Biden led Trump by 46 points to 44. Today, Trump leads Biden by 45 points to 44.
The data shows that Trump now holds a two-point lead among people who consider themselves “independent.” Last time, Biden led Trump among independents by 42 points to 38.
He also gained ground among college graduates, eroding Biden’s dominance in that group. Biden’s lead fell from 25 points to 17 points from June.
The poll also found that other Republican candidates hold narrow leads over Biden: former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley leads by two points, while Sen. Tim Scott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hold one point. advances in hypothetical confrontations.
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence are three points and eight points behind, respectively.
But the focus now is on a showdown between Biden and Trump, who is the clear favorite for the Republican nomination even though he was indicted in a fourth criminal case last month.
The results echo a national NBC poll conducted over the weekend that put the two candidates neck and neck and revealed deep dissatisfaction with the likely choice in the 2024 election.
Trump appeared Monday at a campaign event at Sportsman Boats in Summerville, South Carolina. He is boycotting the second Republican debate organized Wednesday in California.
Johnson said Biden’s decline was due to a mix of dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and Trump’s aggressive campaign.
“This comes as voters express immense dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy; “People just don’t feel the improvement in the situation that the economic growth figures and falling inflation suggest,” he said.
“There are also deep concerns about Biden’s age.
“Another factor: Trump’s photo. For many independent voters — previously concerned about Trump’s indictments — the photo raised doubts about the legitimacy of the criminal charges the former president faces.
“There’s still plenty of time to run, but Democrats who relished the idea of Biden facing Trump in the general election may end up having serious reason to regret.”
The survey results should be viewed with caution.
There is still more than a year until voters cast their ballots and a lot can change.
The electoral college system also means that results in swing states are more important than overall national numbers.
But the Trump campaign has been buoyed by a series of similar conclusions that its candidate is on a roll.
“The fact is that President Trump will be the nominee and will beat Biden because he is the only person who can energize the economy, secure our borders, protect communities and end unnecessary wars,” the president said. campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung.
“Americans want to return to a prosperous nation and only one person can do it: President Trump.”
Another poll put Biden in an even bigger hole on Sunday. The Washington Post survey places the 80-year-old 10 points behind Trump.
JL Partner surveyed 1,000 likely voters September 15-20. The results have a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points and show that Kamala Harris is the least popular vice president in recent memory.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said voters’ opinions of Harris produced one of the most brutal word clouds of her career, with words such as “incompetent,” “idiot” and ” non qualified “.
Other pollsters said it was likely an outlier and that the actual race remained closer.
But it also revealed that Biden’s approval rating stood at around 37%, a disastrous number for a president seeking re-election.
The DaillyMail.com/JLP poll is also gloomy for Biden’s chosen running mate, Kamala Harris.
Some 40 percent of respondents said she was the worst vice president in recent history, ahead of Republicans Mike Pence and Dick Cheney.
When asked to choose one word to sum up the vice president, respondents chose “incompetent” well ahead of laudatory words such as “smart” and “strong.”
And as if that wasn’t clear enough, nearly half of the 1,000 respondents said Biden should swap his running mate for 2024 — including 27% of Democrats and a quarter of Black respondents.