Approaching the climax of the movie Rounders, when Matt Damon’s poker-playing character Mike McDermott heads to the pit of Teddy KGB’s dank, dimly lit, iron-doored gambling den, he takes a moment to monologue about the depths it has finally reached.
He’s in the wrong kind of trouble, with the worst kind of people, looking for one last chance to save himself.
“I’ve often seen these people,” McDermott narrates, “with those squares on the table, with few chips and long odds against them, with all their chances lost, one last card in the deck that can help them. “I used to wonder how they could let themselves get into such a bad situation… and how the hell they thought they could turn it around.”
That’s the feeling that comes to mind right now when I think about these New York Jets. I see a franchise already in serious trouble this season, having spent everything at its disposal with a finally healthy Aaron Rodgers, but once again experiencing withering returns on investment. The quarterback got his chosen destination, his chosen offensive coordinator and ample talent around him. The offensive line was fine-tuned. The scheme was adapted to your preferences.
However, after a putrid loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3, the Jets responded by looking completely out of place offensively for much of the day against the Minnesota Vikings in a 23-17 loss in London. Of course, it was against one of the most disguised and confusing schemes in the league, orchestrated by Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But these Jets, led by a smart and wise 40-year-old Rodgers, were supposed to be built to overcome that kind of obstacle.
It’s now becoming difficult to ignore a bigger picture that’s looking worse by the week, with the Jets’ only pair of wins coming against the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots, two of the AFC’s bottom franchises that have a combined 2-7 this season and faltering a lot as a quarterback.
When you look at the Jets from that broader angle, you have to wonder, in the words of Mike McDermott, how the Jets got into such bad shape and how the hell they think they can get out. The answer they’ll be looking for next week is that proverbial last card in the deck: Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams. A player who is being studied on the trade block by a handful of franchises, none seemingly as desperate as this Jets franchise.
All of which frames a new challenge for the Jets. Sure, they should and do want Adams… but should Adams want them back?
There’s no guarantee that the narrative of the Jets being Adams’ best option is definitively true. Remember, there was a period of time in 2022 when the overwhelming assumption was that the Green Bay Packers were going to sign Adams to a long-term extension, shortly after the team had completed a new deal for Rodgers. But it was Adams who took a sharp left turn, surprising even Rodgers, by pushing a trade to the Las Vegas Raiders so he could maximize his salary and play alongside his college quarterback, Derek Carr.
If nothing else, it shows that Adams isn’t exactly a guaranteed trade for New York. And, frankly, it’s a much stronger part of his story that needs to be weighed, more so than the cryptic Instagram post with a portrait of Edgar Allen Poe that put all of Baltimore on edge. His last big decision had an element of familiarity with Carr, but also a much larger element of how much money he was going to be paid. He had been waiting in line for a long time in Green Bay for a monster extension. And finally, he got tired of waiting behind Rodgers and made a decision for himself.
Now that Adams is about to turn 32, I suspect money will continue to be a factor in his thought process. Not just how much of his salary the Raiders are willing to pay to trade him for a decent draft pick, but how viable it will be for a trade partner to pay him in 2025. Maybe even if that trade partner is willing to put in a little work. kind of contract adjustment immediately upon his arrival, giving him some guaranteed money in 2025.
As it is, he doesn’t have that. Instead, he has two extremely burdensome years of non-guaranteed money left on his contract, to the tune of $72.5 million in base salary, roster and playing bonuses. As things stand, it’s virtually certain that no team will pay that.
In fact, almost none of the teams interested in negotiating for him can afford him, making him little more than a rental for them unless he agrees to rework his deal. And if Adams modifies his deal, he’ll want a ton of guaranteed money in 2025. That’s what you do when you’re going into the offseason at 32 years old and with just one more short-term bite at the salary apple. . Look how much of this conversation No Focus on Adams simply forming a clan with a former quarterback teammate?
But since that will at least be part of the conversation, let’s take a look at the Jets and ask again if Adams should be interested in them right now. First, the offense has seemed disjointed at best. The Jets are not consistently running the ball or creating any balance in the scheme. The offensive line has had an extremely difficult time since losing right tackle Morgan Moses. And at one point against the Vikings, I couldn’t help but notice Rodgers facing the bench and doing the familiar “hurry up” finger twirl, which is generally used when upset quarterbacks want the play caller to receive the play over the radio more quickly. It resonated Sunday because Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was mercilessly dragged during his brief stint as Broncos head coach for failing to make plays quickly enough to allow Russell Wilson to get to the line of scrimmage and resolve protection calls. and defensive alignments.
So there’s all that. And then there are some of the moments that raise how well-oiled the machine is, even when plays are running efficiently. Late in the first quarter against the Vikings, Rodgers put a perfect ball in Allen Lazard’s face and the receiver dropped it. On the next play, Rodgers threw the pick-6 interception to Vikings linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel.
That lit a fire under Minnesota that would see them build a 17-0 lead, forcing the Jets to move away from their running game to attempt a comeback. That tilt toward the passing game allowed the Vikings to become much more aggressive up front, which led to Rodgers being hit repeatedly if he didn’t get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.
When it was all over, Rodgers revealed that he had sprained his ankle and declared, “I’m definitely banged up.”
If you’re Adams, you have to stop for a moment and take it in. If Adams can’t get a good amount of guaranteed money in 2025 as part of the trade parameters, then needs whether it’s putting up some solid numbers down the stretch this season, or getting a Super Bowl shine with his new team. If he doesn’t get any of those things, then his new team will cut him (to avoid paying his huge contract figure in 2025) and then he’ll face a reception in free agency next offseason that could be much colder than he expects. You can already feel it when you talk to other NFL executives. He’s not viewed as the same top-three or four wide receiver as when he was traded to the Raiders in 2022. So the next few months really matter when it comes to the twilight of his career.
Now consider that Rodgers is already 40 years old, playing banged up and now with a sprained ankle, behind an offensive line that is having trouble protecting him and with a young wide receiver in Garrett Wilson who is clearly shaping up to be the number one option on the team. and has already made some critical comments about the plan. Against the Vikings, Rodgers forced Wilson for 22 targets and still missed at times on throws where Wilson didn’t understand what Rodgers wanted or Rodgers just missed. All while Wilson has transformed into a small-ball receiver who hits most of his targets at 10 yards or more. And now the Jets want to add another presumptive No. 1 receiver whose best assets have traditionally been unlocking the middle to deep spots. from the field? The kind of routes that typically require a quarterback to hold the ball a little longer and need better protection?
All of that should give Adams pause. As will the Jets’ next two games: at home against the Buffalo Bills and then on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers team, which would also like to be a player in Adams’ draft. If the Jets lose those two games and fall to 2-5, a situation that already feels shaky could quickly turn ugly. In some respects, you can already see it in the Jets fan base after Sunday, where it is quickly becoming apoplectic on social media.
Sure, Adams can reunite with Rodgers. After Sunday, the Jets are probably desperate enough to pull it off, letting the Raiders shop for Adams and then shelling out the top basket of draft picks for his services. But the flip side of that deal will still be Adams entering a franchise that seems to invite chaos and the brink of implosion.
Go watch the latest climactic episode of Rounders. Watch Mike McDermott mortgage the last of his friendships. Watch him enter that prison-inspired elevator and descend into a brick-lined bunker that appeared to have one entrance and one exit. It was a daunting time and everything had to be arranged perfectly to survive and change everything. That sounds a lot like the Jets’ definition right now. And everyone knows that there is only one last card in the deck that can help them.
But will he do it?
