Is a major fault about to burst in California? The largest small earthquake since 1988 raises fears of a “big earthquake”

California could be at risk of a generation-defining massive earthquake, according to geophysicists, following a record number of mini-quakes recorded across the state in 2024.

The warning comes just days after a 4.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Los Angeles metropolitan area on Monday, originating from a site near Los Angeles’ Chinatown.

“In 2024 we’ve had more earthquakes than in any year since 1988,” Caltech geophysicist Dr. Lucy Jones told reporters. “We should expect this to continue.”

Experts believe a major earthquake in Southern California (generally defined as magnitude 7.0 or greater) could kill at least 1,800 people, injure 50,000 and cause more than $200 billion in damage.

Dr. Jones noted that it is a common misconception that the increase in mini-quakes relieves stress on underground tectonic plates, leaving a calmer region less prone to “The Big One.”

She warned locals that the opposite is true.

“The most consistent feature of earthquakes is the relative number of large to small ones,” Dr Jones told the locals. KTLA Morning News 5 on Tuesday.

‘For every magnitude seven, you have ten magnitude sixes, a hundred magnitude fives, a thousand magnitude fours, etc.’

“So if the rate of magnitude four earthquakes increases, the probability of having a larger one will increase by about the same amount,” the CalTech researcher explained.

In other words, the wave of small earthquakes in 2024 is a harbinger of a massive, large-magnitude earthquake coming soon, according to most seismology experts.

Last year’s mini-quakes ended an era of relative calm in Southern California, which has seen just five magnitude-4 earthquakes each year for the past two decades.

In previous decades, since 1932, the sunny region has averaged 10 to 12 earthquakes of magnitude four or higher each year.

“This is an active year, as we used to see,” Jones said.

With more than four months to go until the end of the year, 13 earthquakes of magnitude four or higher have already occurred in 2024.

Monday’s mini-quake caused minimal damage, but local news reports detected water pouring from a breach in the side of Pasadena City Hall, where firefighters had gathered to help civilians.

And a June study published in the journal Scientific advances This seems to reinforce Dr. Jones’ view on the risk of a major earthquake occurring soon.

Using advanced underwater scanning techniques, scientists have mapped the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 600-mile fault that stretches from southern Canada to northern California, in detail never seen before.

The fault has been revealed to be divided into four segments rather than being one continuous strip like many other faults.

“The precision and resolution is unprecedented. And it’s an amazing data set,” said Kelin Wang, a research scientist at the Geological Survey of Canada who was not involved in the study. NBC News.

The discovery could prove even more catastrophic because it implies that these multiple tectonic plates could slide beneath one another, creating more pressure and, therefore, more severe earthquakes.

Researchers concluded that the Cascadia subduction zone has the potential to trigger an earthquake of magnitude nine or greater.

For comparison, an earthquake of up to magnitude 8.3 is expected to occur in San Andreas, California.

If an earthquake of magnitude greater than 9.0 were to hit the U.S. West Coast, it could generate tsunamis 100 feet (30 meters) high or more, kill more than 10,000 people and cause more than $80 billion in damage in Oregon and Washington alone, experts estimate.

“The recurrence interval of this subduction zone for large events is on the order of 500 years,” Wang said.

“It’s difficult to know exactly when this will happen, but it will certainly be quite late compared to other subduction zones.”