The Iowa pollster who made a wildly inaccurate prediction that Kamala Harris would win the deeply red state now claims her mistake may have actually helped Donald Trump.
J. Ann Selzer, renowned for her predictions in The Hawkeye State, admitted that her research was completely wrong and may have even emboldened MAGA nation.
“I told more than one media outlet that the results of this latest poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they were likely to achieve victory,” he wrote Thursday. “Maybe that’s what happened.”
Selzer added that he was “thinking about how we got to where we are.”
The explosive admission comes as election results continue to show good news for Trump, with Arizona and Nevada expected to give him more than 300 electoral votes, with Republicans the favorites to maintain control of the House of Representatives.
J. Ann Selzer, the formerly respected Iowa pollster who completely failed in her prediction that Kamala Harris would win the deep red state, admits she may have helped Donald Trump win.
Selzer, a famous pollster known for her accurate predictions in Iowa, admitted that her research was completely wrong. Additionally, he believes that releasing a poll in which Harris led Trump by three in a state that Democrats had not won since 2008 may have emboldened MAGA nation.
Selzer’s poll showed Harris leading Trump by three in a state that Democrats had not won since former President Obama’s first victory in 2008.
“My philosophy in public opinion research is to do the best I can to reveal the truth of a future event, in this case Election Day,” he wrote.
“Without fear or favor, we used the same method as this year’s final poll to show a healthy Trump lead in both 2020 and 2016. It turned out that they captured the mood of the electorate reasonably well, although both received criticism from residents of Iowa who doubted The findings could be true.”
He continued to try to defend his methodology, which completely surprised voters the weekend before the election.
“The poll results we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom do not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booths today,” he said.
“I will review data from multiple sources in hopes of learning why that happened, and I appreciate what that process can teach me.”
Selzer’s poll for the Register and Mediacom days before the election predicted Harris would win by +3 percentage points. But Donald Trump defeated the vice president by more than +13 points in the Hawkeye State.
Selzer’s polling in the days before the election was an unusual mistake for the longtime pollster, and gave many liberals false hope that Harris was doing better than expected.
They attributed it to anger among Iowa women, both liberal and conservative, over the state’s crackdown on abortion.
Selzer, who had accurately predicted Iowa election results since 2008, predicted that Kamala Harris would win Iowa by +3 points. Then they lost state by more than +13 points.
Trump easily won the state of Iowa as he cruised to victory in the presidential race Tuesday night, also winning each of the seven swing states and the national popular vote.
Iowa has become a Republican-leaning state, with Trump winning the state by +9 percent over Joe Biden in 2020 and +10 percent over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
However, the state has not always been reliably red, swinging toward Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections by +9 percent and +6 percent, respectively.
Selzer, who was mercilessly mocked after Iowa swung for Trump, had accurately predicted each of these results since 2008, giving him a Nostradamus-like reputation that drew attention to his incorrect Harris poll. last week.
The humiliation also prompted Register executive editor Carol Hunter to issue a statement to readers explaining why they published the survey.
“The Des Moines Register is closely reviewing the disparity between the final Iowa poll results and the election results,” Hunter said in a statement.
‘Throughout its 81 years, the mission of the Iowa Poll has been to reflect the unvarnished opinions of Iowans, free of pressure or interpretation from politicians, the media or others.
‘With rare exceptions, the final Iowa poll before the election has closely tracked the actual vote.
‘The registry editors will work closely with pollster J. Ann Selzer to review all methodologies and other factors that may have impacted the difference.
Donald Trump easily won Iowa in Tuesday’s presidential election, just as he did in 2016 and 2020.
Sen. Marco Rubio blasted the Des Moines Register poll that was released days before the presidential election and showed Trump losing to Vice President Kamala Harris.
‘The Iowa poll has gauged Iowans’ opinions on everything from agricultural policy to traffic cameras to the quality of mental health services in the state. “We want to make sure it accurately reflects the feelings of Iowans going forward.”
Trump spent Thursday beginning to assemble a team for his second term, and campaign co-chair Susie Wiles was named White House chief of staff.
Two Senate elections remain uncalled, and Democrats retain their leads in Arizona and Nevada, which would leave Republicans with a majority of 52 to 48 seats, a three-seat gain.
Democrat Rubén Gallego leads Trump ally Kari Lake in Arizona by two points, with 76% of the votes to occupy Kyrsten Sinema’s seat.
In Nevada, incumbent Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by just over a point with 91% of the vote, according to Nevada polling expert Jon Ralston. declaring ‘game over’ for Brown.
House results continue to creep forward, with Republicans holding 211 seats, seven short of retaining their majority.
Democrats won 195 seats and led in 14 of the uncalled races, which would put them ahead by 209, a loss of four seats from their minority position in 2022.
Lakshya Jain, survey analyst for Split Ticketgave Democrats no more than a 15% chance that late vote recounts would provide them with the comebacks needed to win a surprising majority.
