Remembering the size and scope of Donald Trump’s US presidential victory over Kamala Harris, my first thought was “WTF.”
That is, W.white trump Females: the demographic that played a crucial role in giving him victory, increasing support in unexpected states, and giving him a resounding majority in the popular vote.
Despite all the debate over abortion laws and Trump’s checkered past when it comes to his treatment of women (remember ‘grabbing them by the pussy’?), white female voters didn’t abandon Trump as many pollsters expected. that they did it.
Instead, many WTFs were disheartened by the campaign Harris ran, which exaggerated the risks of a Trump comeback and underplayed the details of what kind of president Harris would become.
Which is not to diminish the importance of the wild ride that lies ahead when Trump takes office. When that time comes, Australia could also have new leadership.
Either a re-elected Labor government that quickly washes its hands of Albo – as pundit Niki Savva suggested Labor should do in a recent column – or a new coalition government led by Peter Dutton.
A WTF phenomenon is likely to play a big role in next year’s Australian election, albeit a slightly different one.
W.white treal FMen could be all that stands between Dutton and the premiership.
White women in Teal electorates will be critical in the upcoming election. Above, people exercise on a hot day in Bondi, in the Teal-held electorate of Wentworth.
Be it Teal’s own MPs (they are all white women) or his strongest voting cohort: white women in once-safe Liberal electorates, who whipped out their cricket bats for Scott Morrison in the last election.
Dutton knows he has a problem with these voters, which is why he has started spending time campaigning in these seats.
He claims that voting for a Teal is similar to voting for Albo. That is a debatable proposition.
I suspect some Teals could stomach a Dutton premiership. Allegra Spender, certainly, but perhaps also Kate Chaney and Sophie Scamps.
These are the most pragmatic of Teal MPs, keenly aware that backing a minority Labor government after the next election could mean the end of their burgeoning political careers.
The three could also be “bought” with ministerial promotions.
But people like Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan and Zali Steggall are a different story. I couldn’t imagine anyone in this triumvirate backing a Dutton-led coalition government.
They wouldn’t do that even if Dutton capitulated to most of their demands on climate change, which is unlikely anyway.
Two female white teal that COULD join Peter Dutton’s government: Allegra Spender (left) and perhaps Sophie Scamps (right)
What will really matter in these seats in the next election is which way WTF voters fall.
Will they vote for their current Teals once again, simply because they don’t like Dutton?
Or do they break ranks over how they voted three years ago when they ousted Scott Morrison as prime minister?
For a change in their vote to occur, these voters would have to be sufficiently concerned about Albo returning for a second term and believe that their local Teal, if he returns, will make that outcome even more likely.
Had voters in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s electorates known that the pair were going to back a minority Labor government led by Julia Gillard, they would probably have abandoned both MPs in the 2010 election for Nationals candidates.
That relatively recent experience will inform many WTFs who will be voting in the upcoming election. It will be the definitive test of how they see Albo and Dutton respectively.
The Coalition can win the next election without victories in Teal seats, even without some support from Teal as a minority government. But the path to victory becomes much narrower.
For a start, Western Australia would have to return to Dutton with a ferocity similar to that which abandoned the Morrison government.
Both sides of politics believe that is unlikely, despite the worsening state of the economy and falling commodity prices.
Beyond that, the Conservatives would need to win 15 seats across the country to govern in the minority without the Teals, or almost 20 to do so on their own.
That’s a big question when pursuing a one-term government.
The Coalition is also distracted by having lost these once-safe seats to the Teals in the last election. It has hurt fundraising and getting it back takes a lot of time and energy.
Rather than giving up on these seats entirely, Dutton is trying to turn attacks on Teals into the same appeal he is using in the outer metropolitan marginal seats.
He maintains that Albo has to go and the only way to guarantee this is to vote for Dutton and the Coalition.
It remains to be seen if the WTFs are okay with that.