LONDON (AP) – The UK Prime Minister's deal with the Brexit divorce may not be, as a lawmaker of the opposition called it, "dead as the deadliest dodo," but it is certainly a torment.
It looks as if Britain's Parliament will reject the agreement during a vote for Tuesday. If that happens, May has until the beginning of next week to come back to Parliament with a Plan B – and Britain only has 10 weeks until it leaves the block on March 29, with or without an appointment.
Here is a look at what could happen if lawmakers approved the deal.
SECOND TIME LUCKY
If the deal is rejected by a small margin, the government can try again and resubmit the agreement to Parliament after it has been amended or has received some restful words from the EU to remove the concerns of legislators.
But while EU leaders have given "clarification" to the deal, they insist that the 585-page terug withdrawal agreement can not be reopened.
Leavers show banners to the Houses of Parliament to protest the Brexit Deal in London, Monday, January 14, 2019. British Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get support for her Brexit deal in Parliament. Legislators will vote on the agreement on Tuesday and all signals will indicate that they will reject it, making the Brexit less secure than three months before UK leaves the EU on 29 March. (AP Photo / Frank Augstein)
All further guarantees they give will probably lag far behind the demands of pro-Brexit legislators who want to change or reverse the "backstop", a guarantee for the Irish border that the UK would bind in a customs union with the EU after the Brexit. The EU says that there can be no deal without the backstop to guarantee an open border along the UK's only land border with an EU Member State.
The EU is likely to be more receptive to a softer Brexit deal, leaving Great Britain part of the internal market for goods and services of the block. But May says that she never agrees with such a plan and it is unclear whether a majority of the legislators would support this.
DELAY BRITAIN & # 39; S EXIT
With the splitting of Parliament, there is increasing speculation that Britain will try to extend an extension of the two-year exit process, which ends on March 29th. Even if an admission is approved quickly, there may not be enough time for Parliament to have all the legislation on the Brexit day.
Some ministers urge May to postpone Brexit and then consult lawmakers in a series of "indicative votes" to see if a majority can be found for a new plan. And different factions of legislators are examining ways to use parliamentary rules to deny control of the government's Brexit process.
A delay would probably also be necessary in the case of two other possible scenarios: a general election or a second referendum. Any delay to the Brexit date requires unanimous approval from leaders of the remaining 27 EU Member States.
KEEP A ELECTION
If the deal is defeated with a big margin, Prime Minister Theresa May will be under pressure to resign. But she has sworn to continue, and her conservative party can not in any way deport her as a leader – after a failed no-confidence vote in May's leadership by conservative lawmakers in December, she is safe for a new challenge for a year. .
The main Labor party of the opposition says that it will try to launch an election by declaring a motion of censure throughout the government. But the vote will fail unless some members of the ruling conservatives or the allies of the government of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland rebel and oppose the opposition.
If the government has lost a vote of censure, it would have 14 days to destroy the result by winning the trust of the legislators in a new vote – possibly with a new prime minster, if May was persuaded to quit. Besides that, there would be an election, a process that takes five to six weeks.
The campaign to re-visit the Brexit in a second referendum – largely driven by supporters of the losing "stay" side lately – is gathering steam as the pitfalls and complexity of the separation process become clear.
The government is fiercely opposed, but has warned that it is increasingly likely that the decision to leave the EU can be reversed if the May deal is rejected.
It is unclear whether a majority of the legislators would support a new referendum, or what the question would be. Many pro-EU politicians want a choice between leaving the proposed conditions and staying in the EU, but others say that leaving without an appointment should also be an option.
There is a big chance that a new referendum is just as divided as the first one.
"No deal" is the result that few want, but it is also the default option. If the divorce agreement is not approved, modified or suspended, Great Britain will no longer be a member of the EU at 11 p.m. London time on 29 March.
The Bank of England has warned that tumbling out of the block without a deal to soften the exit could submerge Britain in its deepest recession in nearly a century, and warn companies of the sudden end to long-standing trade agreements with the EU. and a shortage of food and medicines.
Follow AP & # 39; s full Brexit coverage at: https://www.apnews.com/Brexit
A demonstrator dressed like a robot demonstrates in front of the Houses of Parliament while Pro-European demonstrators protest in London on Monday, January 14, 2019. British Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to get support for her Brexit deal in parliament. Legislators will vote on the agreement on Tuesday and all signals will indicate that they will reject it, making the Brexit less secure than three months before UK leaves the EU on 29 March. (AP Photo / Frank Augstein)
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