It was an unknown end to the 2024 season for third baseman Alex Bregman, and an unexpectedly early entry into free agency.
When the Houston Astros were eliminated from the American League playoffs by the upstart Detroit Tigers led by their former captain, AJ Hinch, it was the first time a season had ended for Bregman since his rookie year in 2016. Game 7 of the 2020 ALCS — October 17 — had been the earliest date on the calendar. Bregman’s Astros had been eliminated in any of the previous seven seasons. October 2 has traditionally marked the approximate beginning of Houston’s annual playoff run, rather than the abrupt end of one. But when the Tigers secured the final out that Wednesday afternoon in the early days of baseball’s most unpredictable month, Bregman’s uncertain future came to the fore, with the possibility that the painful early exit from the postseason would also mark his last. I play as Astro. .
It’s possible that Bregman’s tenure in Houston will continue, as there are several compelling reasons to believe that will ultimately be the case. But Bregman will hit the open market first with the opportunity to begin a new chapter elsewhere and will bring with him a nearly unmatched track record of individual and collective success that would strengthen any roster and any clubhouse.
Since the early days of his development in New Mexico, all Bregman has done is win. He won multiple gold medals as a high school student playing for USA Baseball. 16U and 18U teams. He reached the College World Series in two of his three seasons at LSU. Selected with the second overall pick in 2015, Bregman’s professional career has directly coincided with Houston’s run atop the American League. Although the 84-win Astros missed out on a playoff berth in Bregman’s rookie year, Houston has qualified for every postseason since, including seven straight trips to the 2017 American League Championship Series. to 2023.
Only Derek Jeter played more postseason games up to 30 years (110) than the 99 October games in which Bregman has already participated. Bregman’s 99 career playoff games are already tied with Tino Martinez for eighth in MLB history, and he ranks in the top 10 on all-time postseason leaderboards for runs (63). , runs batted in (54), home runs (19) and total bases (164), with his 30 years still ahead of him.
Bregman’s extensive postseason experience, renowned work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader are some of the key features of his case as one of this winter’s top free agents. At the same time, October’s track record and off-the-field qualities are only part of the equation when teams evaluate whether to commit long-term to a free agent. It’s equally crucial to understand what a player has to offer over the course of 162 games before even thinking about his added value come playoff time.
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Bregman’s glove stood out, but an offensive metric that could raise yellow flags fell off
Bregman’s regular season resume is equally stellar, although it can be divided into two distinct sections. In his early 20s, Bregman seemed poised to become a full-fledged superstar. His fifth-place finish in American League MVP voting in 2018 somewhat understates how good he was as a Bregman. 7.9 fWAR ranked third in the MLB only behind Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. In 2019, a season in which slugging skyrocketed leaguewide to heights not seen since the late ’90s, likely due to more lively dancing — Bregman’s production skyrocketed even more. He hit a career-high 41 home runs, drove in 112 runs and drew an MLB-best 119 walks, ultimately only losing to trout for the American League Most Valuable Player award. With that monster campaign during his age-25 season, the sky seemed to be the limit for Bregman.
Since then, and as the league-wide offensive environment has returned to a more modest state, Bregman’s bat has ranged from good to excellent, rather than MVP caliber. Still, combined with an excellent glove at third base, Bregman has consistently ranked as one of the best at his position, albeit a notch below the inner circle of elite players at the top of the league.
Bregman’s identity as a hitter is based on his exceptional ability to make contact, with strikeout rates that annually rank among the lowest in the league. Combined with a tremendously discerning eye that leads to routinely high walk totals, Bregman has long been an OBP expert. Although his average and maximum exit velocities pale in comparison to most traditional sluggers, Bregman has consistently produced a favorable distribution of batted balls that allow for plenty of extra-base hits despite his modest raw power. While he’ll likely never replicate his eye-popping 2018-19 totals, he’s still a safe annual bet for 30 doubles and 25 home runs, perhaps depending on his next home ballpark.
That trend continued into 2024, with one notable caveat: Bregman’s walk rate plummeted to a shocking degree, falling at a 6.9% clip that was nearly half the 13.8% rate he had posted over the previous six seasons. . Although he continued to make plenty of contact, Bregman was much more aggressive in 2024, posting his highest overall swing and chase rates since 2017, and his OBP paid the price.
Bregman also suffered the coldest start of his career in his platform year. His .577 OPS in March/April was his worst mark in any single month of his career, and he was one of several Astros hitters who struggled amid the team’s surprisingly poor first six weeks of the season. Eventually, the ‘Stros found their groove, as did Bregman. Although his OPS was still a paltry .589 through May 27, Bregman warmed up in the summer months and finished remarkably strong, hitting .290/.337/.581 with 12 home runs over the final 38 games of the year.
Although his frigid start and sharp decline in free passes kept his overall offensive production below career norms, Bregman’s overall value was still boosted by a spectacular year as a defensive back at third base, culminating in his first Gold Glove. The honor may have been in part a product of less competition in your league – Matt Chapman is now playing in the National League, but it still reflected a new apex for Bregman’s glove work, with him posting career-best results in Statcast’s Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value metrics.
The fact that Bregman reached a new defensive peak at the hot corner in 2024 made it even more curious that one of the first reports to surface about his free agency was a willingness to go to second base if the situation required it, according to his agent, Scott Boras. In theory, that added versatility could open him up for consideration by more teams, those whose situations at third base are already resolved. Bregman also played exclusively shortstop in college and got some playing time at second base early in his career, so it’s plausible that Bregman would be able to return to the middle infield. And while it hasn’t yet affected his ability to be an impact defender at third base, Bregman’s arm strength has also been evaluated. below average, according to Statcast, hinting that his overall defensive profile may age better on the right side of the draw.
Boras also revealed Bregman recently underwent a procedure on his throwing arm to remove bone fragments from his elbow, so that’s another element teams will have to consider when evaluating his free agency, although he hopes to recover in time for spring training. .
A position change may be necessary, but for now, let’s consider Bregman as what we know he already is: a Gold Glove third baseman, and consider possible adjustments accordingly.
Teams that feel like their biggest pursuers: Astros, Yankees, Tigers and Mets
The Astros remain firmly in the hunt to sign Bregman as a free agent, and general manager Dana Brown said Bregman was the The team’s “highest priority” and José Altuve’s firm statements that Bregman he is still his teammate. Houston may very well be deciding between two paths regarding its next high-value commitments: retain Bregman this winter, or let him walk and instead prepare to pursue a long-term deal with Kyle Tucker, either through an extension or a massive free agent. deal when the star outfielder hits the open market in a year. Perhaps team owner Jim Crane will push the budget to ensure both local stars remain in Houston long-term, but that’s an expensive proposition. The organizational decision to let Carlos Correa leave in free agency was certainly important, but Jeremy Peña was ready as the heir apparent at the time. Such internal replacements do not exist for players like Bregman or Tucker, which increases the pressure on Crane and Co. to lock in one or both long-term to ensure a core of championship-quality position players remains in place.
The Astros are also one of the few contenders with a glaring hole at third base. Perhaps the Yankees could get involved if they lose Juan Soto, as they could slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to his more natural second baseman. Perhaps the Mets will pursue Bregman if Pete Alonso leaves and rising star Mark Vientos moves to first base. Seattle is actively seeking upgrades at both second and third base this winter in search of an improved offense to support its elite pitching staff, but the Mariners haven’t spent much on a free agent hitter in years, a trend that It doesn’t seem likely to change. Perhaps Toronto would invest heavily in Bregman as a centerpiece on the left side of the infield in anticipation of losing Bo Bichette in free agency next winter.
Could a meeting with Hinch in Detroit make sense? The Tigers have several infielders who need playing time, but adding Bregman would be an exciting way to build on the team’s big 2024 campaign, and would bring a much-needed veteran presence amid an otherwise ultra-young lineup. The same could be said for a rising Nationals team that hasn’t yet found success like Detroit has, but has a talented core on the rise, and a wide-open void at third base that prospect Brady House doesn’t. seems to fill imminently. .
While intriguing landing spots can certainly be found around the league for Bregman, Houston still seems like the most likely destination on paper. But that’s no guarantee and the hot stove always has a way of surprising us.
